The connection between immigrant entry and COVID-19 spread in america has driven much political discussion and policy, including the implementation of Title 42 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To look at the connection between COVID-19 spread and immigrant entry, we compared 2020–21 immigrant flows with local COVID-19 rates, using estimates of border crossings from the Border Patrol and visas issued through the Department of Labor’s seasonal guest employee program. Our evaluation capturing seasonal guest employee entry on the national level showed no statistically significant relationship with COVID-19 rates. Our analyses of Southwest border crossings showed a small, statistically significant relationship between immigrant flows and COVID-19 rates in border counties (0.14 percent increase in local cases per 100,000 residents for every additional 100 immigrants). Nonetheless, this estimate is modest compared with the indisputable fact that half of all month-to-month changes in case rates were greater than 59 percent. Moreover, the modest increase became nonsignificant with increasing local vaccination rates. Estimates also didn’t maintain their statistical significance when analyzed with some alternative approaches. Our findings support existing evidence that the short-term impacts of immigrant flow on local COVID-19 rates were minimal.
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