Learn how to use North Carolina betting bonus Tuesday

Nevertheless, the Wildcats swept Fordham this yr, beating the Rams without Skogman within the second meeting. 

Ultimately, I don’t love this matchup for Fordham, which posted a similarly poor 6-12 conference record en path to the A-10 tournament’s No. 12 seed. 

The Rams run a perimeter-oriented isolation offense, with Kyle Rose, Japhet Medor and Will Richardson firing away on off-the-dribble 3s. They rank second within the A-10 in 3-point rate. 

Nevertheless, the Rams made almost nothing, shooting 32% from deep in conference play. They generate loads of open jumpers (first within the league in Open 3 Rate) but don’t have the shot-makers to capitalize (last in ShotQuality’s Shot Making metric). 

And I don’t think Fordham may have a neater time canning shots against Davidson’s defense, which allows loads of 3s (eleventh within the A-10 3-point rate allowed) but closes out on every thing (first in Open 3 Rate allowed).

That played out across the 2 head-to-head meetings, with the Rams shooting 13-for-54 from 3 (24%). 

On the opposite end of the court, Fordham runs a drop-coverage defense that effectively denies 3-point shots (rating first within the A-10 in 3-point rate allowed) by overplaying ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wings, funneling them into the mid-range. 

Nevertheless, the Rams can’t prevent rim-runners, rating within the seventh percentile of D-I teams in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game allowed (21) and fourth-to-last within the A-10 in paint points per game allowed (33). 

While Fordham is a solid rim defense per possession, it wasn’t enough to carry off Davidson’s rim-based attack in two meetings. Davidson ranks top 70 nationally in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (25), and the Wildcats scored 66 combined paint points across two head-to-head matchups with the Rams.

It’s a nasty schematic matchup for Fordham, and that ought to play out in the ultimate meeting. Our Motion PRO Model projects the Wildcats as 5.5-point neutral-court favorites over the Rams, and I agree with that math. 

Davidson vs Fordham Pick

Davidson -3.5 (-110, FanDuel) | Play to -4 (-110)

Louisville vs. North Carolina State odds

Louisville vs. North Carolina State prediction

(4:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

The Wolfpack began the yr so promising, surging to a 7-4 conference record. 

But they collapsed down the stretch, losing seven of nine to slip to the No. 10 seed within the ACC Tournament. 

Luckily, the Wolfpack will face the lifeless Louisville Cardinals in the primary round. The Cardinals have won one game away from home this yr. 

Louisville managed to maintain it close with the Pack in Kentucky earlier this season, losing by six as 7.5-point ‘dogs. However the Cardinals needed an uncharacteristic 8-for-15 (53%) 3-point shooting performance to maintain the sport close.

Betting on College Basketball?

With out a repeat performance – which is very unlikely for a 30% 3-point shooting team – the Cardinals don’t match up well with the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is an isolation- and post-heavy offense, leveraging five double-digit scorers in those sets. 

Nevertheless, the Wolfpack are a well above-average defense against each sets, rating top-60 nationally in isolation PPP allowed (0.78) and post-up PPP allowed (0.77). It’s pretty hard to attain over the 6-foot-9, 275-pound DJ Burns on the rim. 

In the primary meeting, Louisville scored a combined 13 points on 15 isolation and post-up sets, a pedestrian 0.87 PPP. 

Conversely, NC State can also be a post-up heavy offense behind Burns, who is sort of unstoppable on the low block.