Among the best gambling days on the calendar has arrived.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby will happen on Saturday, May 6 at 6:57 p.m. ET on the enduring dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The race will feature 19 horses (Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar were scratched and replaced with Mandarin Hero, King Russell and Cyclone of Mischief) and is headlined by No. 15 Forte (3-1), No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1) and No. 14 Angel of Empire (8-1).
In all likelihood it would be Forte that goes off because the clear favorite because it is predicted that Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale – a furniture tycoon from Houston that uses betting as a hedge against promotions at his furniture store – will bet tens of millions of dollars on Forte to win.
It sounds ludicrous, but McIngvale’s money will completely change the outlook of the pool when it hits.
It does seem that there are a few consensus narratives across the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
For one, there does appear to be an absence of pace — or at the least no person feels confident of what the pace situation will appear like — and the railbirds also appear to lend a hand that this field is pretty weak in comparison with previous years.
These aspects appear to point to this being a wide-open race with several horses that might reasonably be considered a contender to win.
So let’s take a have a look at the morning-line odds and run through some picks:
2023 Kentucky Derby Odds
| No. 1 Hit Show | 30-1 |
| No. 2 Verifying | 15-1 |
| No. 3 Two Phil’s | 12-1 |
| No. 4 Confidence Game | 20-1 |
| No. 5 Tapit Trice | 5-1 |
| No. 6 Kingsbarns | 12-1 |
| No. 7 Reincarnate | 50-1 |
| No. 8 Mage | 15-1 |
| No. 11 Disarm | 30-1 |
| No. 12 Jace’s Road | 15-1 |
| No. 13 Sun Thunder | 30-1 |
| No. 14 Angel of Empire | 8-1 |
| No. 15 Forte | 3-1 |
| No. 16 Raise Cain | 15-1 |
| No. 17 Derma Sotogake | 10-1 |
| No. 18 Rocket Can | 30-1 |
| No. 21 Cyclone Mischief | 45-1 |
| No. 22 Mandarin Hero | 29-1 |
| No. 23 King Russell | 44-1 |
Fade: No. 15 Forte (3-1)
If, as expected, “Mattress Mack” does back Forte, this price can be even shorter than the morning-line price of 3-1.
It’s hard to justify betting anybody at that price in a 19-horse field, so we’ll attempt to beat the favourite and just tip our cap if Forte provides the products.
Pick to win: No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1)
Like Forte, there are some inquiries to be asked about Tapit Trice on this field.
He’s a more in-depth that needs a superb trip to be in position to make his late move, but with the suggested lack of pace on this field, he must have the stamina to get the job done.
Not the very best value to win, but my pick to win for those who’re in search of that kind of thing.
Best value to win: No. 17 Derma Sotogake (10-1)
The winner of the UAE Derby ships in from Japan and can look develop into the primary horse from his home country to win the Kentucky Derby.
The undeniable fact that we’ve yet to see a Japanese winner on this race is keeping his price in a superb spot for bettors in search of value.
If this number does dip, bettors in search of an extended shot winner can pivot to No 8. Mage.
Kentucky Derby 2023 Betting: Every thing you wish
Best long shot to make use of in exotics: No. 1 Hit Show (30-1)
I liked No. 7 Reincarnate as a possible long shot, however it looks as if he’s going to get bet up quite a bit, so I’ll pivot to No. 1 Hit Show.
No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post position since 1986, but that is a superb buy-low spot on a horse that might be around 10-1 if he had a greater starting spot.
Even when he doesn’t win, Hit Show can provide quite the payout on exotics if he hits the board, which I feel he can do.
Moreover, it’s likely that this number gets larger as we catch up with to the race.
Should you are afraid of the No. 1 position, one other huge price to contemplate can be No. 21 Cyclone Mischief.
