Kansas vs. Samford First Round prediction: March Madness picks

No. 4 Kansas and No. 13 Samford square off Thursday night in an NCAA Tournament first round matchup in Salt Lake City.

Kansas has only been as high as a No. 4 seed thrice since 2005. All the time a threat to take down a tournament under legendary coach Bill Self, this KU team disillusioned down the stretch, losing 4 of its last five games. 

Nevertheless, the Jayhawks were missing two of their stars, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., of their Big 12 Tournament loss to Cincinnati. Dickinson ought to be good to go for the opening round, but McCullar has been ruled out and won’t be available for the remaining of the tournament.

Let’s take a better have a look at this intriguing matchup and discover a betting edge.

Samford vs. Kansas odds

Kansas hasn’t been the identical for the reason that calendar flipped to 2024.

The Jayhawks were 12-1 with wins against Connecticut, Tennessee and Kentucky in the primary month of the season, but were a middling 10-9 after the ball dropped.

I’m betting on talent on this one as we have a look at hitting the over on the sport total. Oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair, because the 154.5 total is the sixth-highest of the opening round.

The Jayhawks rank top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating. They rely heavily on scoring two-pointers, and Self’s team did so at an elite 54.8% shooting clip (thirtieth within the nation). 

How will they fare against Samford’s defense? The Bulldogs rank well outside of the highest 100 in defensive eFG%, 2PT%, and 3PT% while sending their opponents to the foul line at a really high rate.

The Bulldogs’ offense could find rather more success than their defense against Kansas.

Samford attempts 3-pointers at a really high rate, they usually own the nation’s eighth-best shooting percentage from downtown.

That makes their Twentieth-ranked 2P% look pedestrian. This team can shoot with the very best of them.

Samford’s 3-point matchup suits like a glove against Kansas. The Jayhawks yield 3-point attempts at a top-60 rate and are 168th in defensive 3PT%.

All of that sounds pretty good for attacking this over, however it gets even higher because each teams prefer to play fast.

The Bulldogs like to push the pace, owning KenPom’s 14th adjusted tempo and Kansas ranks 92nd in that department.

Betting on March Madness 2024?

This matchup must have an up-and-down pace of play, with Samford getting loads of quality 3-point looks on one side.

On the opposite end, the Jayhawks should overpower a Bulldogs’ defense that hasn’t played against anyone within the KenPom top 100 since Nov. 10.

The overall opened at 149.5 but was bet as much as as high as 154.5. BetMGM and PointsBet still have it a degree lower.

Let’s take the over in a fun late-night hammer Thursday night.

Pick: Over 153.5 points (-115, BetMGM)