In a single week, the chances on Paul Skenes to win NL Rookie of the Yr have gone from -3000 to -390 on FanDuel. Two things happened:
1. Skenes showed he was human, allowing 4 runs to the Dodgers in a series through which the Pirates were swept.
2. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill went 9-for-16 with 4 homers and eight RBIs in 4 games, helping the Padres keep pace with the Dodgers within the NL West.
For Skenes, it might be a one-game blip, although there are signs it is perhaps rookie fatigue.
His “splinker” for the primary time looked hittable, and he reached “only” 98.6 mph on his fastball in the primary inning, a season-low, in accordance with Codify Baseball.
Codify has also been tracking the variety of times he’s hit 100 mph, and people are trending down too, from 53 times in his first five games to 21 in the following five to only 4 in his last five starts.
If the Pirates (56-62) fall completely out of it — they enter Tuesday six games behind the Braves for the ultimate wild-card spot — their phenom is a major candidate to be shut down.
Mix that with a late begin to his rookie season, and voters could have a tricky time handing hardware to a player with an incomplete resume.
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We’re fading Skenes for Merrill, a runaway winner in every other season who has been consistent from start to complete.
THE PLAY: Jackson Merrill to win NL Rookie of the Yr (+275, DraftKings).
