The era of unabated “revenge travel” could also be coming to an in depth.
Latest reports show that, after years of inflation and rising travel costs, travelers may finally be curtailing their travel plans.
A recent report by the research company Morning Seek the advice of shows that travel intentions are increasing in several countries, but flatlining or falling in others, most notably in Europe.
Intentions to travel dropped 11 percentage points in France and 6 in Germany since 2022, based on Morning Seek the advice of’s “The State of Travel & Hospitality” report published in September.
Interest to travel also fell in Canada and Russia (-4 percentage points each), the survey showed.
Survey: Jan 2021-July 2023; 14,000 adults; margin of error +/-3%.
Source: Morning Seek the advice of
As as to if this implies pent-up demand is ending: “Yes, our data suggests that’s so,” said Lindsey Roeschke, travel and hospitality analyst at Morning Seek the advice of.
“That is to not say that travel will decline significantly again, but … in brief, the vast majority of those that were waiting to take their ‘revenge trips’ have already done so,” she said.
A slowdown could also be more pronounced in Europe, said Roeschke.
“Much of this is said to the economy — inflation has eaten away at consumers’ savings prior to now yr and caused them to reprioritize how they spend,” she said.
An influx of North American tourists over the summer drove prices higher, making travel even dearer for Europeans. Put together, this paints “a more pessimistic outlook on travel in comparison with other regions.”
‘Revenge travel prone to fade’
Pent-up demand was expected to have greater endurance in Asia-Pacific, where Covid border restrictions were kept in place longer than other parts of the world.
Nevertheless, a recent report by the economic advisory firm Oxford Economics says “short haul ‘revenge travel’ is prone to fade” within the region.
Pent-up demand fueled travel in Asia-Pacific in the primary half of 2023, but since then, the trend is beginning to reverse, it states, citing a drop in Singaporean visitors to Malaysia following a surge in late 2022.
“We expect similar, if less pronounced, dynamics for the remainder of the region,” as an initial flurry of short-haul trips settles down, the report states.
The reports said arrivals from other parts of the world, especially the USA and Europe, are prone to wane too, because the delayed effects of tightening monetary policies hit travelers’ wallets.
“We’re sticking with our call that the U.S. will enter recession across the turn of the yr,” the report states. “Travel is for essentially the most part a luxury good and amongst the very first thing to be reduce when times get tougher.”
Chinese consumers ‘losing their gusto’
But this level of fervor may not last, warns Oxford Economics.
“Chinese consumers are rapidly losing their gusto after the initial reopening spending spurt. High unemployment, negative wealth effects from the troubled property sector, and weak wage growth don’t make a powerful backdrop for forking out on foreign holidays,” it states.
The report notes the chance that the longer Chinese tourists travel domestically, a everlasting shift in travel preferences may occur amongst a population where international trips have lost some luster as a standing symbol.
Most Chinese tourists are traveling inside China and its special autonomous regions of Hong Kong and Macao. One week prior to Golden Week, standard rooms in 22 casino hotels in Macao were sold out for 3 of the eight-day holiday period, based on GGRAsia, an organization that tracks Asia’s casino industry.
The boost purely from pent-up demand may soon run its course.
Furthermore, interest amongst Chinese travelers to go to certain places is falling, based on Morning Seek the advice of’s report. Intentions to go to North America fell 23 percentage points from 2022 — far eclipsing a drop in interest from South Korea (12 percentage points) and Japan (9 percentage points).
“The drop in China is especially concerning,” the report states. “While reasons are a combination of logistical (flight are scarce and expensive) and geopolitical (tensions are high between the U.S. and Chinese governments), the decline is a blow to destinations that were hoping for a more robust recovery.”
Fizzling pent-up demand
Outbound travel from China is about to proceed growing, as flight and passport processing constraints ease. But it surely will not be enough to make up for the lack of travelers from other regions, based on Oxford Economics.
“The tourism boost to Asia has passed its peak,” the report states. “While mainland Chinese are very necessary to the region … growth in numbers is unlikely to be enough to stop the general pace of the tourism recovery slowing in most places.”
“The boost purely from pent-up demand may soon run its course,” it states. “Consumers in advanced economies, particularly the U.S., will likely moderate their spending plans within the face of an uncertain economic environment. Others may follow as their home economies catch a chilly.”
The travel industry stays bullish, nonetheless. A JLL survey published Thursday showed 77% of hotel owners and operators in Asia-Pacific anticipate an increase in occupancy levels in 2024.
