International tourists to U.S. fall, but Americans keep going abroad

Caroline Smith, an accounting director from Verona, Recent Jersey, and her husband took their two children to Italy for Easter break this month. On the Spanish Steps in Rome, they bumped into one other family from their town. Two other families from the identical area were also independently visiting Italy at the identical time, she said.

The families are a part of an emerging trend within the $11 trillion global travel industry: Americans are traveling abroad in droves, while the number of holiday makers to the US is falling.

Foreign visitors to the US by air fell nearly 10% in March from the identical month a yr earlier and nearly 13% from before the pandemic to 4.54 million people, in response to data from the International Trade Administration, a part of the Commerce Department.

Easter week last yr was in March, causing some vacations to shift this yr. Nonetheless, U.S. residents flying abroad increased 1.6% from last March and are up 22% from 2019 to six.56 million travelers.

The imbalance could further deepen the greater than $50 billion gap between what the U.S. generates through travel and tourism services and what Americans spend abroad. It’s a priority for the U.S. travel industry, which brings in about $1 trillion a yr. The U.S. Travel Association on Jan. 9 said it expected a greater than 12% increase in spending from international tourism in the US this yr.

An on-again, off-again trade war, high-profile detentions of holiday makers in addition to visa holders and everlasting residents, together with President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about taking up countries like Canada, and a powerful U.S. dollar for much of this yr and travel warnings have not helped drum up demand from international travelers.

“President Trump’s agenda to make America wealthy, secure, and exquisite again advantages Americans and international visitors alike,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in an e-mailed statement. She said the administration is “spearheading the trouble to point out all that makes America great by bringing global sporting events, including the World Cup and Olympics, to the USA..”

JPMorgan warned that the decline in foreigners’ travel spend within the U.S. could subtract around 0.1% from gross domestic product this yr.

“This points to potentially one other channel to contemplate in assessing the effect of tariffs on economic activity,” it said. “Concerns around detentions of foreign visitors, sometimes by accident, are only compounding this effect.”

Samuel Engel, senior vice chairman at consulting firm ICF, said that while “there isn’t any query that foreigners are finding the U.S. less welcoming” one other query is that if the hesitance to travel to the U.S. from abroad is now showing up in international business travel.

“Business people don’t ink deals within the face of uncertainty,” he said.

United Airlines last week said bookings from international passengers originating in Europe are down 6%, while those originating in Canada are down 9% yr over yr. Delta Air Lines said it was seeing an analogous phenomenon.

But American consumers’ appetite for international trips helps to melt the blow of fewer international tourists and weaker-than-expected demand in domestic U.S. travel for some firms, like United and Delta, that are cutting back flights inside the US later this yr.

“I traveled around Europe quite a bit pre-kids so I have been attempting to do the identical with the family now that the children are older,” said Smith, 44, who has a 7-year-old and an 11-year-old. “We went to Spain in 2023 and Portugal in 2024, chosen partially since the flights are short, as compared to Greece, which is on the list.”

Grace Cular Yee, a travel adviser who owns Pineapple7 agency in Lansdowne, Virginia, said lots of her clients are considering international travel greater than domestic partially because they’re wanting to splash out on college graduation trips since their kids largely missed out on highschool commencement celebrations during Covid.

“It is a major milestone for the entire family,” she said, adding that while many travelers get ideas from social media, more Americans are also getting inspired by television shows, like the newest season of “The White Lotus,” which was set in Thailand. She said she recently planned a visit to France for a mother-daughter highschool graduation trip since the daughter loves the show “Emily in Paris.”

United said that advanced bookings earlier this month are stable and premium-cabin sales are up 17%, while international demand has risen 5%.

Delta’s president, Glen Hauenstein, is optimistic that the trend will proceed and said money sales for international travel are coming in ahead of the identical point last yr.

“Sales which might be coming within the door as of yesterday that we’re recording today as money are very strong for international through the summer all the best way out to September, October,” he said on an April 9 earnings call, adding that international sales were up on the yr.

Many working Americans and retirees are on edge with recent market tumult, but wealthy and aging travelers, particularly within the pricey front of the plane, are helping to offset that.

“Being a baby boomer, I can say this without fear of retribution: There’s only a lot time to go to Europe or almost a lot time to go see Australia or Japan,” Hauenstein said on the earnings call. “So you’ve got got this wealth effect where this cohort of retirees is wealthier than another cohort even with essentially the most recent rundown, and so they wish to go do things.”

It is not clear whether a pullback in consumer spending behind the plane and even some softness in corporate travel growth is an indication that high-end, international leisure travel bookings will weaken, too. For now, the labor market stays strong.

“Everybody’s life shouldn’t be fully disrupted but everybody’s life is on more tenuous footing straight away,” said ICF’s Engel. “The best way people manage uncertainty is that they hold back on decisions.”

Correction: Hauenstein spoke on an April 9 earnings call. An earlier version misstated the date.