A German gas storage facility photographed in September 2022. European countries are trying to wean themselves off Russian gas following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The chief director of the International Energy Agency on Wednesday said that while Europe’s gas storage for this winter was nearly full, the next one could pose a big challenge.
Taking questions following a gathering of the Economic Council of Finland, Fatih Birol said near 90% of gas storage was full in Europe.
“I might have preferred that the European countries were far more nimble, much … faster, to react to our recommendations,” he told reporters, referencing the IEA’s 10-point plan on methods to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.
“But where we’re just isn’t bad and I expect if there aren’t any surprises — political and technical surprises — and if the winter … is a standard winter, Europe can undergo this winter with some bruises here and there, but we are able to come to February and March.”
At this point, Birol said storage levels will likely have dropped to between 25% and 30%. “So the query is, how can we go from 25% or 30% to, once more, [for the] 2023 winter … 80-90%?”
“What helped us this time, [is that] we still imported some gas from Russia in the previous couple of months,” he said. As well as, China had imported “less gas than it could have otherwise” as a consequence of what Birol called “very sluggish economic performance.”
The scenario, Birol, said, could change in 2023, especially with regard to China. “Next 12 months, if Chinese gas imports increase with the Chinese economy coming back, it can be [a] somewhat difficult few months ranging from March to next winter.”
“So this winter is difficult, but next winter may additionally be very difficult as well,” he said, adding that preparations for the latter period needed to begin today.
Birol’s comments come at a time when Europe is scrambling to shore up energy supplies because the war in Ukraine continues.
Russia was the most important supplier of each petroleum oils and natural gas to the EU last 12 months, in line with Eurostat, but in a report published on Monday, the IEA said gas exports from Russia to the European Union had seen a big decline this 12 months.
“Despite available production and transport capability, Russia has reduced its gas supplies to the European Union by near 50% y-o-y for the reason that start of 2022,” the Paris-based organization’s latest Gas Market Report said.
“In the present context, the entire shutdown of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union can’t be excluded ahead of the 2022/23 heating season — when the European gas market is at its most vulnerable,” the report added.
In an indication of how difficult the present situation is, energy firm Orsted recently announced it could proceed or restart operations at three fossil fuel facilities after being ordered by Danish authorities to accomplish that.
In an announcement over the weekend, Orsted — whose biggest stakeholder is the Danish state — said the direction had been made “to make sure the security of the electricity supply in Denmark.”
Just a few days before Orsted’s announcement, one other big European energy firm, Germany’s RWE, said three of its lignite, or brown coal, units would “temporarily return to [the] electricity market to strengthen security of supply and save gas in power generation.”
RWE said each of the units had a 300-megawatt capability. “Their deployment is initially limited until 30 June 2023,” it added.
