How trade deadline affected NFC Super Bowl contenders

The NFL trade deadline was Tuesday and a handful of players found latest homes before the second half of the regular season commences.

Two NFC contenders made all-in moves that might change their fortunes in a conference that appears wide open. 

Let’s break down the moves and futures odds for every team. 

Detroit Lions acquire DE Za’Darius Smith

In accordance with FTN’s Aaron Schatz, only nine teams since 1979 have ranked in the highest five in DVOA in all three phases after Week 8 of the season.

Six of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl. 

The Lions are the ninth team. 

Detroit is a transparent upper-echelon contender. Nevertheless, my lone prevailing concern was the team’s pass rush following the lack of Defensive Player of the Yr frontrunner Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending leg injury.

Per TruMedia, the Lions had a 53% pressure rate and five sacks over the season’s first six weeks. Since Hutchinson’s injury, the pressure rate has fallen to 21%. 

Detroit’s front office recognized this deficiency and bought edge rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns for a Day 3 pick swap. 

Smith isn’t near a one-for-one alternative for Hutchinson. He has a 13.9% pressure rate this season, in line with TruMedia, while Hutchinson had a stellar 25% rate. Hutchinson still ranks fourth within the NFL with 45 total pressures and he did that in only five games. 

Nevertheless, Smith generally is a worthwhile a part of the Lions’ pass rush.

There isn’t much value on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at +480 odds at BetMGM or to assert the NFC North at -250 odds.

Detroit has the entire pieces it must make a title run this 12 months, and if their championship price lengthens following a loss at any point, I’d be taken with buying in.

Washington Commanders acquire CB Marshon Lattimore

First-year head coach Dan Quinn deserves tremendous credit for turning across the Commanders’ defense. 

Washington ranked dead last in EPA per Play allowed for the primary 4 weeks of the 12 months. Since Week 5, they’ve ranked eighth, including third in EPA per pass allowed.

One significant change Quinn made was moving rookie Mike Sainristill to the boundary, replacing Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who ranks 199th out of 205 qualified corners in Pro Football Focus’s grades. 

Nevertheless, Sainristill is a more comfortable fit within the slot, and this move to accumulate Marshon Lattimore allows him to operate inside more often.

Lattimore ranks twenty fifth out of 117 qualified corners in PFF’s Coverage grades, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in single coverage for the reason that 2021 season.

He can shadow opponents’ top wide receivers if Quinn deems it obligatory based on the matchup, and he’ll shut down his side of the sphere as a rule.

The Commanders’ run defense remains to be shaky — they rank dead last in line yards allowed to running backs, per FTN.

Betting on the NFL?

Nevertheless, with a much-improved secondary paired with the fourth-ranked pass rush by ESPN’s win rate metrics, this defense is trending as much as pair with an offense acting at an elite level with rookie Jayden Daniels.

Washington ranks twenty ninth in strength of schedule faced by DVOA, and 4 of their final eight games might be against teams with winning records.

Two dates with the Eagles loom large for this team’s possibilities to win the NFC East (+110 odds). 

The Commanders are priced at 22/1 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel and I can’t fault you for taking a flier at that price.

Why Trust Recent York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the Recent York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the 2 sports with a 6.27% ROI.