How the U.S. and South Africa ended up in a dispute over Russian gunrunning allegations

Relations between the U.S. and South Africa frayed last week, when U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety openly accused Pretoria of running guns for Russia via a mystery merchant ship.

Brigety was summoned to a gathering with senior South African officials on Friday to reply for his comments, which related to the “Lady R”, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian merchant vessel that loaded from Russian port Novorossiysk before docking at Simon’s Town naval base, around 22 miles outside Cape Town, for 3 days in December.

After meeting with South African Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Naledi Pandor, Brigety tweeted his gratitude for the chance to “correct any misimpressions left by [his] public remarks.”

South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO), released a reasonably different interpretation of the conversation in its readout.

Spokesman Clayson Monyela said DIRCO conveyed its “displeasure with [Brigety’s] conduct,” and said that Brigety “admitted that he crossed the road and apologised unreservedly.”

Monyela also claimed that “the National Conventional Arms Control Committee [NCACC] has not approved any sale of arms to Russia related to the period and incident in query … [and] any assertion that ‘South Africa (Government) sold arms or is arming Russia’ is factually incorrect.”

The sudden flare-up of tensions triggered a flurry of ensuing diplomatic activity, with Pandor chatting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa issued a press release on Monday in response to the allegations, saying that, “since we would not have concrete evidence to support these allegations, we’re establishing an independent inquiry headed by a retired judge to ascertain the facts.”

The Lady R

The Lady R, a Russian-flagged roll-on/roll-off cargo ship sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, docked at South Africa’s largest naval base under the duvet of darkness on Dec. 6 before returning to sea early on Dec. 9, sparking speculation amongst residents, local media and opposition political parties.

The vessel’s automatic identification system was reportedly offline, and photographers captured shots of cargo being transferred between the Lady R and several other container trucks, in line with multiple South African media reports. Military experts noted the strangeness of a civilian vessel docking at a naval base, particularly when the industrial Table Bay harbor was available nearby.

On the time, Defence Minister Thandi Modise acknowledged that the vessel had docked in Simon’s Town but told reporters that the offloaded cargo was “an old, outstanding order for ammunition utilized by the special forces.” She promised further information and clarification, which never got here.

The Lady R is owned by OFAC-sanctioned Russian company Transmorflot, which didn’t immediately reply to CNBC’s request for comment.

Ultimately week’s press conference, Ambassador Brigety said that the U.S. was “confident that weapons were loaded onto that vessel,” and that he would “bet [his] life on the accuracy of that assertion.”

Louw Nel, a Cape Town-based senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, suggested it was fair for Pretoria to demand evidence from the U.S. to support its claims, but noted that “the absence of explicit denials from senior administration officials only fuels the impression that South Africa has something to cover.”

Although he acknowledged that the U.S. has a “long history of weaponising intelligence,” the circumstances surrounding the Lady R’s docking in South Africa “are undeniably suspicious, and repeated demands (each domestic and foreign) for the country to elucidate itself have foolishly been ignored.”

“South Africa has been marked with a black spot, and it’s now incumbent on the country to point out that its image has been falsely tarnished,” Nel said.

“Proving its innocence won’t be a straightforward exercise, and its immediate response has not inspired confidence.”

South Africa’s ‘non-aligned’ position

Ambassador Brigety suggested within the controversial press conference that the mystery of the Lady R rendered South Africa’s policy of non-alignment regarding the war in Ukraine “inexplicable.”

In his statement on Monday, President Ramaphosa also insisted that South Africa “has not been, and won’t be, drawn right into a contest between global powers,” implying that the country was being targeted with accusations due to its neutrality over the war in Ukraine.

“That doesn’t mean that we would not have a position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he added. “Consistent with our stance on conflicts in other parts of the world, South Africa’s view is that the international community must work together to urgently achieve a cessation of hostilities and to forestall further lack of life and displacement of civilians in Ukraine.”

Ramaphosa reiterated calls for the international community to “support meaningful dialogue towards a long-lasting peace” and said South Africa’s position seeks to create conditions that enable “the achievement of a durable resolution of the conflict.”

“We don’t accept that our non-aligned position favours Russia above other countries. Nor will we accept that it should imperil our relationships with other countries,” he added.

Pretoria’s diplomatic efforts over the past week prolonged beyond Washington, as Ramaphosa also spoke to each Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday.

In a press conference on Tuesday, he announced that each leaders had signaled openness to meeting with a mission of African heads of state to debate potential paths to peace.

South Africa’s relationship with Russia has been thrust under the highlight since last 12 months’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this 12 months, the federal government welcomed a diplomatic visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and conducted a controversial joint military drill alongside Russia and China, which coincided with the primary anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party has close ties with Moscow, dating back to the Soviet Union’s support for the anti-apartheid movement. This history was flagged by South African Foreign Minister Pandor during Lavrov’s visit, by which she lauded a deepening relationship between the 2 countries as a part of a “redesigned global order.”

Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that the brand new allegations raise further questions on South Africa’s unaligned status — especially alongside an ANC ruling in March that stated that “the U.S. provoked the war with Russia over Ukraine,” in addition to the country’s abstention from UN votes condemning Russian aggression.

South Africa can be as a consequence of host the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Johannesburg in August, where Russian President Vladimir Putin was invited to attend. He can have to affix virtually, in light of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over the forced deportation of youngsters in occupied areas of Ukraine.

This in itself caused turmoil in Pretoria, as Ramaphosa’s government briefly threatened to tug out of the ICC before rowing back on the president’s remarks.

“It is not clear how things will play out over the approaching weeks and months, but these latest developments threaten to further strain South Africa’s relations with the U.S. and its Western allies,” Tuvey said.

Economic risk

An additional deterioration of South African relations with the U.S. risks greater than $15 billion value of U.S. exports, in line with 2021 figures from the U.S. commerce department, together with the involvement of South African businesses within the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

Laws was introduced within the U.S. Congress earlier this 12 months, demanding a review of bilateral relations with Pretoria in light of its apparent pull towards Moscow. South Africa’s duty-free access to U.S. markets for chosen products under the landmark AGOA is under the microscope, ahead of the deal’s renewal in 2025.

It was this risk that led to a plunge within the rand — which touched an all-time low of R19.51 to the dollar and posted a record closing low of 19.33 — together with a spike in South African bond yields following Brigety’s comments last week. Business leaders began to view exclusion from AGOA as an actual possibility, in line with industry body Business Leadership South Africa.

“One in all the conditions for a rustic to qualify under AGOA is that it will not be a threat to American national security interests. Supplying arms to Russia is clearly going to go away us afoul of that requirement,” BLSA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso said in a press release Monday.

“It probably would not stop there – we even have a free trade agreement with the European Union that could possibly be in danger and trade relations would even be affected with the UK.”

BLSA said the Simon’s Town episode has “needed an evidence because it took place” and that it’s “imperative that the federal government clear up this mess,” calling on Ramaphosa’s administration to “take a transparent position on arms trades with Russia” and make a “concerted effort to revive positive relations with the U.S.”