How Russia’s support is growing within the developing world

Russia’s sphere of influence is growing as propaganda and diplomatic efforts gather momentum and Western powers fail to counter the Kremlin’s narratives, analysts suggest.

A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit earlier this month indicated that net support for Russia had grown within the yr for the reason that full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow ramps up its diplomatic charm offensive of previously neutral or geopolitically unaligned countries.

Assessing countries’ enforcement of sanctions, U.N. voting patterns, domestic political trends and official statements alongside economic, political, military and historical ties, the EIU observed a major uptick within the number of nations now leaning toward Russia — from 29 last yr to 35 today.

“China stays essentially the most significant country on this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world’s population,” the EIU report said, adding that these trends highlight Russia’s growing influence in Africa.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and the 2 leaders vowed to deepen economic ties.

While South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor indicated that the “massive transfer of arms” from the West to Ukraine had modified Pretoria’s outlook and lauded the country’s “growing economic bilateral relationship” with Moscow.

The EIU said the variety of neutral countries rose from 32 to 35, now representing almost 31% of the worldwide population.

“Some previously Western-aligned countries, including Colombia, Turkey and Qatar, have moved into this category as their governments are in search of to reap economic advantages from engaging with either side,” the EIU said. 

“Nonetheless, each Russia and China are upping the ante in recruiting those countries which might be non-aligned and neutral.”

Against this, the number of nations actively condemning Russia fell from 131 to 122. The U.S. and European Union-led bloc including “West-leaning” countries represents around 36% of the worldwide population, and has exhibited a “strong level of collaboration on sanctions” together with consistent military and economic support to Ukraine, the report said.

Nonetheless, this bloc also represents slightly below 68% of worldwide GDP, highlighting an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South.

“Russian propaganda in developing countries is working extremely well, stoking up resentment against former colonial powers, and I might say also fueling the concept sanctions from Western countries are fueling global food insecurity, global energy insecurity especially in emerging countries,” EIU Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC. 

“Obviously that is incorrect, this isn’t the case, but I believe that it really works thoroughly in disinformation campaigns, propaganda campaigns.”

The Russian government has been contacted for comment.

Demarais highlighted that there’s a perceived “hypocrisy” in Western condemnations of Russia within the Global South, given the history of Western military intervention — a sentiment Russia has sought to foment with a view to deflect attention from its actions in Ukraine.

Many in developed Western countries view the thought of Russia being an “appealing” and “attractive” country to some within the Global South as “unattainable,” Demarais said, which underestimates the ability of Russia’s message and its positioning of itself as a savior.

Russia and China have increasingly represented themselves to developing nations as alternatives to the West as economic and military partners, in that neither will attach demands around democracy or human rights to diplomatic relations.

“There may be a scarcity of willingness to acknowledge that individuals will not be considering like we do, and it is admittedly worrying,” Demarais said.

Western leaders “are excited about it when it comes to we’re on the appropriate side of history, which is true, however it doesn’t suggest we do not need to clarify it.”

Countering organized Russian propaganda first requires acknowledging the issue, and constructing awareness concerning the goals and effectiveness of sanctions, she said.

“I believe there’s a lack of expertise about sanctions and the way they work, what they do etc., and Russia is clearly using this to its advantage. It’ll be a really long-term trend, I’m unsure there’s any quick magical fix. It isn’t a fairly picture.”

A ‘regional conflict’

The most important economy and population center still falling under the EIU’s “neutral” designation was India, and Moscow claimed earlier this week that oil exports to India increased 22-fold last yr.

On the recent Raisina Dialogue geopolitics forum in Recent Delhi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the topic of laughter from delegates when he suggested that the Ukraine war was “launched against” Russia. 

Nonetheless, he received supportive applause when bemoaning Western hypocrisy and double standards as he highlighted the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and other perceived Western transgressions. 

He also tried to advance the narrative that sanctions from the West were answerable for grain supply shortages experienced by developing countries consequently of the war.

Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, was within the audience, and told CNBC that perspectives on the war were starkly different in India.

“What becomes clear if you get outside of U.S./European circles is that for us, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the very clear centerpiece of much of our policy decisions and conversations, after which if you talk over with people who aren’t within the U.S. or Europe, it becomes clear that the conflict could be very much regional, and a much smaller a part of a broader puzzle,” Rizzo told CNBC via telephone from Washington D.C.

“What I assumed was interesting that I heard just a few times was that it is a regional conflict that the U.S. and Europe, particularly the U.S., have made global due to our great power competition with Russia and our global sanctions regime.”

She said many developing countries are being placed in positions they “don’t desire to be in” by demands from the U.S. and Europe to more outwardly side with Ukraine, although many countries constituting the Global South actually voted in favor of the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion.

“What has happened within the U.S. is that this framework of democracies versus autocracies has been the framing position of Biden and his foreign policy, and I do not think that lands for a number of the remainder of the world, and it is not a framework that I believe countries discover with in some ways,” Rizzo said. 

“It’s interesting to see how the conversations that we’ve here don’t necessarily reflect what’s happening in countries which might be very vital, I believe, to our foreign policy and our geopolitical standing.”

She also suggested it was overly simplistic to attribute the shifting sands primarily to Russian disinformation campaigns, as this underestimates countries’ agency and self-interest.

“Not every country that decides to simply accept Russian energy imports etc., or has pro-Russian sentiment throughout their populations, not all of that could be a results of Russian information campaigns or disinformation campaigns,” she said.

“A few of that is the very real consequences of Russia these countries as opportunities, the U.S. not being seen because the benevolent hegemonic power as we prefer to see ourselves. It’s far more complicated than Russia pushing disinformation narratives., and unfortunately I believe if you attribute, as we prefer to do, pro-Russian sentiment to that, you lose a complete lot of what is definitely happening.”