How much does ‘shoulder season’ travel save? We crunched the numbers

Nearly one in five Americans said they plan to travel less in 2024, with most citing costs as the rationale , in keeping with Intrepid Travel’s 2024 Outlook Survey.

But many travelers are pressing forward, searching for ways to avoid wasting without compromising their trips. And for some 70% of respondents of Intrepid’s survey, which means avoiding peak season trips.

Enter the era of “shoulder season” travel — or vacations booked between high and low seasons — which allows for cheaper trips, thinner crowds and higher weather.

What was once “one among travel’s best-kept secrets … is [now] our busiest time of the 12 months,” said James Thornton, CEO of Intrepid Travel.

Travelers are typically adults without school-aged children, nonetheless “parents are increasingly willing to take kids out of faculty for travel,” he told CNBC Travel.

In some locations, the shift is so distinguished that it’s changing long-established seasonal travel patterns, in keeping with Zicasso’s 2024 Luxury Travel Report. The survey of some 200 travel specialists found:

• 41% said high seasons are lasting longer, with more traveling during “what was once considered shoulder seasons”  
• 43% said more places are moving into year-round destinations “with no distinct low season”

“We [have] no more low season,” Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Jan. 18. Similar patterns of year-round travel are happening in parts of the Caribbean and Mexico, too.

Because the boundary between high and shoulder season disappear, the savings are vanishing too, said Thornton.

“Demand for travel is powerful, even during off-season, and that brings prices up,” he told CNBC Travel.

To seek out out where deals still exist, CNBC Travel analyzed hotel rates in five popular destinations, comparing peak and shoulder season prices for entry-level rooms for 2 travelers, inclusive of most taxes. Rates are accurate as of Jan. 25, 2024.

Peak periods largely follow the weather, but festivities and natural phenomena, akin to the northern lights and Africa’s Great Migration, drive high seasons too.

Kyoto’s Sakura season is all three, leading to hordes of travelers descending on the town to see the blooming of its cherry blossom trees in late March to early April.

But the value hikes aren’t only within the hotels, said Chisato Nishiyori, 360 Private Travel’s general manager for Japan. “Every little thing” from guides to trains to museum tickets go up, she said.

Restaurant prices remain stable, though reservations at high-end establishments are very difficult to get, even for hotel concierges, she said.

The “dry” (northeast monsoon) extends from January to March, while the “wet” (or southwest monsoon) season lasts from mid-May to November, in keeping with the Maldives Meteorological Service.

Add within the year-end holidays, and peak season within the Maldives lasts from December to April, while November and April are considered its “shoulder” months.

CNBC’s evaluation shows traveling to the Maldives right before the rainy season begins can save tons of, if not hundreds, of dollars in hotel charges alone.

Thus, Italy’s shoulder “sweet spots” are getting shorter and trickier to pinpoint, in keeping with the web site Italy Explained.

“Spring is admittedly the last true shoulder season in Italy, however it’s only two months long — March and April,” it states, adding that price breaks might be present in late October and November too.

Rome’s River Palace Hotel bucked the trend with a lower rate for a “Classic Room” in June than in March, because of a 60-day advance booking promotion. Without that discount, the nightly room rate jumped to $281.

Accor’s Queen Elizabeth 2 ship, dubbed Dubai’s “only floating hotel,” followed a seasonal pattern though, with room rates falling in March, bottoming out through the summer, then rising again in October.

Yr-end rates, when travelers descend on the Big Apple for ice skating at Rockefeller Center and shopping on fifth Avenue, were considerably higher than rates at other times of the 12 months.