Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

Honduras’ decision to chop diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China is yet one more sign of growing Chinese influence in Latin America.

For many years the Asian superpower funneled billions of dollars into investment and infrastructure projects across the region. Now, as geopolitical tensions simmer between China and the Biden administration, that spending has paid off.

Honduras’ decision was the second foreign policy coup in per week for China, which brokered an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reestablish diplomatic relations last week.

Now, Taiwan will likely be recognized by only 13 countries. But among the few remaining in Latin America, like Paraguay and Guatemala, promised Wednesday to maintain their support for Taiwan.

Honduras’ minister of foreign relations, Enrique Reina, told The Associated Press on Wednesday that Hondurans “are grateful” for his or her past relationship with Taiwan, but that their economic links to China ultimately pushed their government to chop diplomatic ties.

“These are political decisions. The world has been moving on this direction,” Reina said. “It’s a posh decision, we understand, but Honduras’ foreign policy should seek to profit the people. We imagine that this step will profit the country.”

The Central American nation follows the steps of El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic in turning their backs on Taiwan.

Honduras’ announcement on Tuesday was a blow to the Biden administration, which has slightly fruitlessly tried to influence countries within the region to keep on with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally, has pushed for sovereignty at the identical time that Chinese President Xi Jinping has insisted the island is firmly under its control.

In that sense, Tuesday’s announcement also exemplifies the American government is “losing its grasp on” Latin America, said David Castrillon-Kerrigan, research-professor on China-related issues at Colombia’s Externado University.

“For countries, like Honduras, not recognizing the federal government in Beijing meant missing opportunities,” Castrillon-Kerrigan. The US “is certainly losing influence on every front, especially the economic front, but additionally diplomatically, politically and culturally.”

It has left the island with a dwindling variety of allies. Reina told AP that the Biden administration “must understand and respect” Honduras’ needs and decisions.

But some, like Paraguay and Guatemala, remained steadfast of their support for Taiwan. Guatemalan officials reiterated the federal government’s “recognition of Taiwan as an independent nation that shares democratic values.”

Over the past twenty years, China has slowly carved out an area for itself in Latin America by pouring money into the region, investing in major infrastructure, energy and space projects.

Between 2005 and 2020, the Chinese have invested greater than $130 billion in Latin America, in response to the US Institute of Peace. Trade between China and the region has also shot up, expected to succeed in greater than $700 billion by 2035.

That investment has translated to rising power for China and a growing variety of allies.

In Honduras, that has are available in the shape of construction of a hydroelectric dam project in central Honduras built by the Chinese company Sinohydro with about $300 million in Chinese government financing.

Meanwhile, in lots of countries, the U.S. government has not stepped in with similarly sized projects.

While many view the investment as a positive step for nations that usually struggle to drag together funds for development, some, like June Teufel, professor of Political Science on the University of Miami, worry in regards to the long-term ripple effects rising Chinese power could have.

Teufel said China is wielding that recent influence as “a diplomatic weapon.”

In lots of countries across in Africa and Latin America, Chinese investment has been marred by mounting debt in developing nations. In lots of cases, infrastructure projects can only be repaired by Chinese firms, racking up a better bill, said Teufel.

“It’s just a little bit just like the drug dealer saying to the potential customer, the primary dose is free,” Teufel said. “It gets one other country abandoning Taiwan, which is something it has been wanting to do for a very long time, depriving Taiwan of all its remaining allies.”