Within the last week, I’ve given out Final 4 futures on Florida Atlantic (+500) and Kansas State (+320) in The Post, so I’m sitting in position with the 2 teams meeting within the Elite Eight.
On this matchup, nevertheless, I give a slight edge to the surprising Owls.
Kansas State likes to play fast and force turnovers.
The one issue with that strategy is the Wildcats could be forced into making mistakes as well.
KSU ranks 263rd in turnover percentage and can now face an FAU team that plays the same style and likes to pressure the basketball.
Kansas State vs. FAU pick
(6:09 p.m. Eastern)
More big edges for FAU are offensive rebounding and second-chance opportunities.
The Owls rank ninety fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (KenPom) and thirty eighth in second-chance conversion percentage (Haslametrics).
FAU’s advantage on the offensive boards against a Kansas State team that struggles with defensive rebounding (248th) should result in easy buckets for the Owls.
Florida Atlantic can also be the deeper team. The Owls rank 14th in bench minutes, while Kansas State ranks a distant 325th.
Depth should play a consider the second half and that would impact fouling.
The Wildcats rank bottom 60 in opponent’s foul shots per game, so I expect FAU to get loads of opportunities on the free throw line.
Betting on College Basketball?
Kansas State plays at a frenetic pace and FAU will probably be greater than blissful to run with the Wildcats.
I lean FAU in a good game, however the play I like probably the most is the Owls’ team total over 71.5.
Win or lose, points off turnovers, second-chance buckets and opportunities on the foul line should get FAU over this total.
Kansas State vs. FAU prediction
FAU team total over 71.5 points (-120, FanDuel)
