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Falling fertility rates are set to spark a transformational demographic shift over the following 25 years, with major implications for the worldwide economy, in keeping with a latest study.
By 2050, three-quarters of nations are forecast to fall below the population substitute birth rate of two.1 babies per female, research published Wednesday in The Lancet medical journal found.
That will leave 49 countries — primarily in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia — chargeable for nearly all of latest births.
“Future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will propagate shifts in global population dynamics, driving changes to diplomacy and a geopolitical environment, and highlighting latest challenges in migration and global aid networks,” the report’s authors wrote of their conclusion.
By 2100, just six countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates: The African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and central Asia’s Tajikistan.
That shifting demographic landscape could have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report’s authors said.
Specifically, shrinking workforces in advanced economies would require significant political and monetary intervention, whilst advances in technology provide some support.
“Because the workforce declines, the full size of the economy will are likely to decline even when output per employee stays the identical. Within the absence of liberal migration policies, these nations will face many challenges,” Dr. Christopher Murray, a lead writer of the report and director on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNBC.
“AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics may diminish the economic impact of declining workforces but some sectors corresponding to housing would proceed to be strongly affected,” he added.
Baby boom vs. bust
The report, which was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, didn’t put a figure on the particular economic impact of the demographic shifts. Nevertheless, it did highlight a divergence between high-income countries, where birth rates are steadily falling, and low-income countries, where they proceed to rise.
From 1950 to 2021, the worldwide total fertility rate (TFR) — or average variety of babies born to a girl — greater than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries grew wealthier and ladies had fewer babies. That trend was exacerbated by societal shifts, corresponding to a rise in female workforce participation, and political measures including China’s one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the full global fertility rate is about to fall farther from 1.83 to 1.59. The substitute rate — or number of kids a pair would wish to have to interchange themselves — is 2.1 in most developed countries.
That comes whilst the worldwide population is forecast to grow from 8 billion currently to 9.7 billion by 2050, before peaking at around 10.4 billion within the mid-2080s, according to the UN.
Already, many advanced economies have fertility rates well below the substitute rate. By the center of the century, that category is about to incorporate major economies China and India, with South Korea’s birth rate rating as the bottom globally at 0.82
Meantime, lower-income countries are expected to see their share of latest births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. By the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all latest births, in keeping with the report.
Murray said that this might put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to barter more ethical and fair migration policies — leverage that might grow to be necessary as countries grow increasingly exposed to the consequences of climate change.
