One in every of the sensible things about major international tournaments is there is no such thing as a right or mistaken option to get right into a final.
You may get there by playing great stuff and overwhelming your opposition, like Spain has impressively done against the likes of Croatia, Italy, Germany or France.
Or you would end up within the showpiece because of an incredible draw, some timely scoring and numerous luck, which is how England has ended up in a second consecutive final on the European Championships.
On two separate occasions, England was on the cusp of being eliminated within the early stages of the knockout rounds.
The Three Lions needed a Ninety fifth-minute equalizer from Jude Bellingham to send their match against Slovakia within the Round of 16 to extra-time after which fell behind Switzerland, 1-0, late within the quarterfinals before Bukayo Saka drew them level within the eightieth minute.
Had the Three Lions not come from behind in either of those matches, Euro 2024 would have gone down as an one of the crucial disappointing tournaments in England’s history and manager Gareth Southgate would have been sacked.
As an alternative, England is now one win away from its first major trophy since 1966.
If handicapping this final was only about backing the higher team, it will be an easy exercise.
Spain has been sensible throughout the tournament despite having an incredibly difficult path.
La Furia Roja have scored 13 goals and allowed just three, and their underlying metrics are superb.
Spain is creating probably the most expected goals and massive scoring probabilities per match on this tournament and has done it against strong opposition.
Defensively, Spain has had some wobbly moments but its overall numbers look terrific and goalkeeper Unai Simon has been in a position to provide cover in big moments, too.
Overall, Spain has had as strong a tournament as you would ask for considering its expectations and path.
The identical can’t be said for England.
The Three Lions really struggled to generate anything going forward through their first five matches and preferred to play a protected brand of soccer even against opponents they need to have the ability to overwhelm given their level of talent.
England amassed just five goals (including one in additional time) against the likes of Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland
And while England’s performance against the Netherlands was clearly its best yet on this tournament, it was still lower than stellar.
The Three Lions fell behind for the third match in a row and fell off the boil within the second half, allowing the Netherlands to dictate the terms of the match.
But none of that matters now.
All England has to do is win one match and no one will remember how poor it looked through the primary five matches of the tournament.
Spain is the consensus favorite for Sunday’s match.
La Furia Roja are -150 favorites at BetMGM to lift the trophy and +145 to win the match inside 90 minutes.
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While I agree Spain must be favored, these odds do seem a bit wide.
England was the favourite to win this tournament when it began and was half the worth of Spain within the outright market.
The way in which the competition has transpired has — and will — impact the costs, but this looks to be a little bit of an overreaction.
England’s defense should have the ability to contain Spain’s elegant attack, which should turn this into more of a rock fight. That suits England and makes a bet at these prices worthwhile.
Suggestion: England to win inside 90 minutes (+240, BetMGM).
