French President Emmanuel Macron.
Ludovic Marin | Afp | Getty Images
President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension overhaul, pushed through by overriding the country’s parliament, could eventually erase what the French leader has been working for during the last six years, political analysts told CNBC.
Macron has placed himself as a centrist politician. When aiming to develop into president in 2017, he selected to determine his own party (La Republique en Marche!, which has been rebranded Renaissance) and tried to interrupt away from the standard conservative and socialist stances. He positioned himself as an opposite to extremism and an answer to the reasonably staid politics of the past.
At elections in 2017 and 2022, he comfortably overcame the far-right challenge of Marine Le Pen — but analysts now predict a more clouded outlook with Macron not eligible to run in 2027.
Macron’s recent decision to make use of special legislative powers to push through a hike within the retirement age adds to a wider dissatisfaction with the political system, Armin Steinbach, a professor of European law and economics at H.E.C. Business School, told CNBC last week.
A poll published earlier this month by the French business channel BFM TV showed that if there have been a vote today between Macron and the National Rally’s Le Pen, the sitting president would lose with 45% of the votes. Macron won the 2022 election with 58.5% of the support.
Macron just isn’t grooming anyone and that is a part of the issue.
Shahin Vallée
senior research fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations
Macron’s popularity rating has worsened within the wake of the pension reforms. At the top of March, almost 70% of individuals surveyed disapproved of the president, versus 61% firstly of the yr.
“The underside line is that it is certainly increasing the split within the society,” Steinbach added.
France has seen 11 days of protest against the brand new pension laws. The proposed laws pushes the retirement age up from 62 to 64, and for Macron, and his government, it is a necessity as a way to balance the general public funds.
Without enough parliamentary support for the reforms, the French government used Article 49.3 of the structure, which implies the law passes through the lower chamber with out a vote. The move angered many French lawmakers and residents and France’s top court on Friday is attributable to rule on whether the proposals follow the country’s structure.
When asked if Macron’s actions would boost more extremist parties, Shahin Vallée, a senior research fellow on the German Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Yes, absolutely.”
Vallée, a former economic advisor to Macron when he served as French economy minister, added that the reforms are “polarizing” voters and may have “disastrous medium-term consequences for the French public.”
Le Pen has voiced her opposition to the pension reform. Within the 2022 election, she said she was in favor of keeping the retirement age at 62 and lowering it to 60 for staff who began their careers before the age of 20.
No successor
On top of probably more support for parties from the political extremes, experts have mentioned how Macron’s lack of a transparent successor may also impact future elections.
“Macron just isn’t grooming anyone and that is a part of the issue,” Vallée said, adding that “Renaissance [party] is a one man party.”
Macron is serving his second mandate as president and the French structure prevents him from running again for the job in 2027. And not using a strong candidate to steer his party at the subsequent election, the centrist group might struggle to select up enough votes.
Three different spokespeople for the Renaissance party, including Secretary General Stéphane Séjourné, weren’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
However the incontrovertible fact that there’s not a transparent successor from Macron’s own party may be tactical.
“None of them have an interest in being the official successor,” Steinbach said, mentioning Bruno Le Maire, the present finance minister, and Edouard Philippe, the previous prime minister, as potential successors. He argued that a “natural break” from Macron can be more helpful for potential successors when gathering votes, as they may more easily distance themselves from the negative connections of the sitting president.
Vallée also said he would not be surprised if Macron takes on a job within the European Union after this mandate, “it might be an awesome holding spot, especially if Le Pen gets elected in 2027.”
In an interview with Politico, François Bayrou, a top ally of Macron, also said that Macron’s participation in French politics won’t end after his second mandate as president.
