Many on Wall Street expect that Novo Nordisk ‘s loss has been Eli Lilly ‘s gain, and this might be excellent news for the Zepbound maker’s second-quarter results. Novo Nordisk’s stock has cratered about 47% for the reason that start of the yr, as doubts emerged in regards to the outlook for its GLP-1 drugs, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. The corporate has said its business has been hurt by competition from compounding pharmacies, that are making knock-off versions of its semaglutide, the lively ingredient in each brands. This prompted Novo to chop its annual forecast and oust its CEO. Lilly’s business appears to be holding up significantly better, in response to analysts. They anticipate the proof might be within the quarterly results and outlook. What’s more, several analysts expect other catalysts, including next-generation drugs, to assist propel Lilly shares higher. ‘Potential materiality’ Up to now this yr, Lilly’s stock has logged a roughly 3% decline, underperforming the market. Nevertheless, catalysts could come as soon as Thursday, analysts say. “We note that LLY’s upcoming 2Q call is scheduled for 8:30am ET on Aug seventh, as opposed the corporate’s standard 10am ET time slot for earnings calls after the market opens, suggesting potential materiality via topline trial results alongside earnings,” Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider wrote in a July 28 research note. He said the report is “probably the most highly anticipated near-term event” across his pharmaceutical coverage. Along with the financial outlook, investors are desperate to hear more about orforglipron , the corporate’s experimental GLP-1 pill. In June, on the American Diabetes Association conference, Lilly revealed the drug helped patients with type 2 diabetes in a late-stage trial reduce weight without serious negative effects . The readout of the phase 3 data for patients with obesity must be released soon. Wegovy’s ‘favored status’ Analysts are also desperate to hear management’s thoughts on CVS Health ‘s policy of giving favored status to Wegovy over Lilly’s Zepbound. The policy went into effect in July and means CVS Health’s pharmacy profit manager Caremark will prioritize Wegovy on its list of covered drugs. It has the potential to be a headwind for Lilly. Nevertheless, patients may seek exemptions and remain on the burden loss drug or pay out of pocket on their very own or via Lilly Direct, the corporate’s direct-to-consumer website. Also, there’s the chance Lilly will strike a deal and get back on CVS Caremark’s list of covered medications, analysts said. In response to Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen, the primary few weeks of the switch showed that patients changing from Zepbound to Wegovy was eclipsed by the variety of patients starting the drug with a brand new prescription. On average, analysts surveyed by LSEG expect Lilly will earn $5.57 per share within the second quarter on revenue of $14.71 billion. If Lilly hits that revenue estimate, it can have achieved 30% growth yr over yr. Here’s what else they’re saying ahead of the report. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares yr thus far. Citigroup: Buy rating, $1,190 price goal Citi analyst Geoff Meacham said Lilly stays one in all its favorite stocks, and he placed a 90-day catalyst watch on it on July 30. His $1,190 price goal implies 55% upside from Tuesday’s close. “GLP-1 script data from IQVIA give us continued confidence in achievability of Lilly’s 2025 revenue guidance ($58B-$61B). Notably, Zepbound scripts remain robust (+45% q/q) and overall share increased to 65.5%, representing a gain of ~600bps in market share. We predict this is especially noteworthy given vials from LillyDirect now represent ~20% of TRx [total prescriptions] and highlight increasing potential for a consumer angle in GLP-1 sales … driving uptake going forward (2Q25e $3.1B; +$99M vs. BBG cons). [Type 2 diabetes drug] Mounjaro scripts rose 16.3% q/q and now captures 42.2% share (2Q25e $4.5B; +$18M vs. cons); though slower growth than Zepbound, this is anticipated given the more entrenched nature of the sort 2 diabetes market. … Top of mind for investors might be orforglipron’s phase 3 ATTAIN readouts for obesity (Jul/Aug). Weight reduction of 12-15% is the efficacy bar and continuation of a squeaky-clean safety profile that we saw at ADA for ACHIEVE … might be paramount.” Morgan Stanley: Chubby, $1,135 In early July, Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn tweaked his price goal, increasing it to $1,135 from $1,133. The goal suggests 48% upside. “In our view the magnitude of potential Mounjaro+Zepbound 2Q beat will dictate how LLY handles 2025 revenue guidance of $58-$61bn (MS $62.3bn vs. Cons $59.8bn), but we expect a raise of the low end at a minimum. LLY could also release Orfor Ph3 obesity and/or SURPASS-CVOT data together with earnings. … Interim Ph3 data for LLY’s Kisunla in preclinical Alzheimer’s (potentially later this yr) could possibly be a de-risking event for treating earlier within the disease course and expand the chance for the category, in addition to provide lateral read-through to BIIB/Eisai’s Leqembi (where Ph3 can also be ongoing)” Bernstein: Outperform, $1,100 Bernstein, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan all have a $1,100 price goal for Lilly’s stock, which suggests it could rise nearly 44% from Tuesday’s close. “We again see the potential for a meet or beat … , driven by Mounjaro & Zepbound performance. Given many of the street follow scripts closely within the US, the upside here arises from additional unexpected pricing (rebate adjustments), underreporting in IQVIA (a possibility), and ex-US performance (resulting from lower visibility). … Despite the potential for a top-line beat (we see potential for modest 1.2% beat above consensus at 14.6B), we do not anticipate LLY might be rushing to extend guidance, given last years back half challenges and the uncertainty for Q3 that continues to be on CVS caremark (although initial signs look strong).” Wells Fargo: Chubby, $1,100 “NVO lowering their guidance on Ozempic and Wegovy headwinds could possibly be limited to NVO itself, as they cite continued compounding, competition, and slower market expansion. We consider LLY guidance will be raised on strong underlying trends. … Subsequently, we can be buyers of LLY on the weakness since we expect a robust 2Q and a catalyst-rich 2H’25.” JPMorgan: Chubby, $1,100 “Overall, we predict a solid 2Q for LLY with upside to Mounjaro/Zepbound (based on strong TRx growth trends), and we estimate total sales within the qtr of $14.8bn (+$370mm vs cons). On the EPS line, we’re barely below consensus ($5.49, -$0.06) as we expect a continued opex ramp to support a growing late stage pipeline and [direct-to consumer] initiatives. Looking forward, we expect some moderation in Zepbound growth because the CVS formulary change takes effect on July 1 but expect the product to still grow TRx in 3Q and speed up in 4Q. And for the yr, our estimates are near the high end of the corporate’s 2025 guidance on each topline ($60.8bn sales, +$1.3bn vs cons) and the bottomline ($22.09 EPS, +$0.07 vs cons) and we might not be surprised to see LLY raise guidance in some unspecified time in the future in 2025 (although the corporate may take a more conservative approach on the timing/magnitude of the increases given 2024 guidance dynamics).” Goldman Sachs: Buy, $883 Haider’s $883 price goal is about 15% above where Lilly shares closed on Tuesday. ” … we expect one other revenue beat, driven by an [foreign exchange] tailwind and robust TRx growth for Zepbound/Mounjaro where our and consensus estimates have tracked higher into the print. … Into the 2Q earnings call, we also note significant investor discussion on the magnitude of potential upward pressure on the corporate’s FY25 revenue guidance where we expect management could tighten the range of $58-$61bn for the yr by bumping up the low-end (based on 1H trends, GS/consensus estimates are $60bn/$60.6bn for 2025). These trends at the moment are well-understood with investor focus higher on attempting to triangulate the impact to 3Q25 sales for Zepbound/Mounjaro from the CVS formulary change in favor of Novo that took effect on July 1st.”
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