Throughout this NCAA postseason, Duke and Florida have been the national championship betting favorites, they usually are expected to face off in Monday’s title game.
Nevertheless, in response to KenPom.com, the highest two teams will actually meet within the second semifinal on Saturday. The highly regarded analytics site ranks Houston because the second-best team behind the Blue Devils.
The Cougars own the nation’s top defensive unit and the offense ranks tenth, which is consistent with previous seasons that ultimately ended with heartache. Nevertheless, this yr’s offense does appear to have a greater ability to avoid lengthy scoring droughts.
They are going to actually need that against a Duke squad that ranks fifth defensively and No. 1 offensively. The Blue Devils are understandably the odds-on favorite to chop down the nets but first must undergo a physical and stout Houston defense.
I even have a 37-22 against the spread record on this Post sports section and am backing each defenses by playing Under 137. I fully expect this game to be played within the high 50s or low 60s for every team.
There’s one school of thought that means that Duke might attempt to push pace to generate offense before Houston’s elite defense can arrange within the halfcourt. But that is just not really its identity.
Despite scoring 85 points against Alabama, the Blue Devils only scored six fast break points. Within the Sweet 16 win over Arizona, only five of their 100 points got here on the fast break.
Now, Duke did generate 17 such points in each of first two tourney wins, but that’s because their opponents shot miserably from the sphere. I don’t anticipate that style of offensive destruction by Houston.
The Cougars rank 347th in average length of possession with 19.6 seconds, and that increased to twenty.1 seconds in conference play.
Kelvin Sampson is an elite coach and their possessions can be measured and tactical, attempting to generate quality shots.
Betting on College Basketball?
Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils should adopt an analogous approach, given they rank 106th in average length of possession at 17.1 seconds. The offensive sets involve multiple screens and ball rotation backward and forward, as a substitute of immediate isolations.
Good defenses don’t allow high-percentage shots early within the shot clock. Each coaches have a whole workweek to dissect film and implement strategies and schemes that ought to devour clock to optimize their possession.
I expect smart attack plans, but buckets will still be at a premium with these defenses involved. I also anticipate a loose whistle, allowing players to dictate the flow and physicality. Thus, I’m betting Under 137.
