Clemson vs. Pitt, UAB vs. Memphis predictions: College football odds, picks

A quarterback change can shake things. Within the case of Pitt, it’s spelling the tip of its dream season.

But for UAB, it’s given the Blazers a shot within the arm and made them a fun watch, no less than when you’re an Over bettor. 

Clemson at Pittsburgh 

Last week, Clemson took its show on the road and put the Virginia Tech offense in a box. Neither Kyron Drones nor Collin Schlee could connect on anything downfield.

In the long run, Hokies quarterbacks finished 16-for-37 for 188 yards with a pair of interceptions. Given Pitt’s questions at quarterback Saturday, I foresee an identical end result. 

Eli Holstein stays a game-time decision for Pat Narduzzi as a result of a head injury. If Pitt is forced to show to backup Nate Yarnell, Clemson’s defense will swarm.

The statuesque quarterback was forced into motion last week against Virginia and the Wahoos pressured him into two interceptions. 

Virginia registered pressures on seven of Yarnell’s 17 dropbacks, often without bringing greater than 4 rushers. That bodes well for the Tigers’ defense, which ranks eighth in defensive Havoc. 

When Clemson has the ball, I’m bullish on a breakout performance from Cade Klubnik and his receiving corps.

Garrett Riley has unlocked Klubnik’s potential this season, essentially flipping his big-time throw/turnover-worthy throw ratio year-over-year. 

As an alternative of settling for check-down throws, Klubnik is pushing the ball downfield and doing it successfully. His PFF passing grade has jumped up from 74.4 on intermediate throws to 91.4 this season.

He has witnessed a fair larger jump (66.2 to 91.8) on throws of 20+ yards downfield. 

That is the way you beat the Pitt defense, testing it deep.

The Panthers have surrendered 35 throws of 20+ yards this season, placing them one hundred and tenth nationally by way of aerial explosives allowed. 

Backing Dabo Swinney in ACC play has been a profitable endeavor since he took over in 2009.

The Tigers have covered 59% of their conference games under Swinney, which is the second-best ATS conference win rate amongst Power 4 programs (behind K-State).

I see no reason to take a seat this one out, especially given Pitt’s offensive dropoff should Yarnell get the beginning at Acrisure Stadium. 

Suggestion: Clemson -11.5. 

UAB at Memphis 

This game has the potential to blow past this total. Let’s start with the indisputable fact that each teams are extremely comfortable playing in high-scoring games. 

Memphis’ AAC games have averaged 68 total points.

And that’s considering a stinker from USF in Bryce Archie’s first start when Memphis won, 21-3. Within the Tigers’ other five AAC games, a mean of 77 points have been scored. 

After which we get to UAB, which has either lit up scoreboards or been lit up themselves over the course of the season.

Dating back to mid-September, UAB has either scored or allowed 35 points in all but one game. 

The Blazers have also raised their ceiling by handing the keys of the offense to Jalen Kitna.

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He’s been bombing away as a starter (42 attempts per game), and he’s difficult teams downfield. 

Jacob Zeno, the incumbent starter, was a check-down merchant who had one in all the bottom aDOTs (average depth of goal) in college football.

Kitna’s aDOT is north of nine in his past two starts, and he gives UAB a probability to interrupt this game wide open with the vertical passing game. 

When Memphis has the ball, Mario Anderson will thrive against a horrific UAB run defense (123rd in success rate).

Super Mario has eight touchdowns in his last 4 games, and he’ll flirt with three against a defense that permits greater than 230 yards per game on the bottom. 

Suggestion: Over 62.5.