WASHINGTON (CNS) — If trends of the past 30 years proceed for the following 50, Christianity will lose its majority status in the USA by 2070, in accordance with a recent demographic study by the Pew Research Center.
If those trends, first identified in 1990, speed up over the following half-century, Christianity could have fewer adherents than Americans who usually are not affiliated with any church, in accordance with the study, “Modeling the Way forward for Religion in America,” released Sept. 13.
Even with the demographic modeling utilized by Pew, the numbers vary widely. Christians, put by Pew currently at 64% of the U.S. population, could slide to 54% — or plunge to 35% — by 2070.
By the identical token, the religiously unaffiliated — called “nones” in some circles — currently at 29%, could rise to 34% of the population in the following half-century, or soar to 52%.
Pew used 4 different scenarios in making its projections. One was “no switching,” meaning that Americans wouldn’t switch from religious affiliation to disaffiliation, or vice versa. It counterpart was “regular switching,” by which 31% of Christians turn into unaffiliated, while 21% of the unaffiliated turn into Christian.
Christians, put by Pew currently at 64% of the U.S. population, could slide to 54% — or plunge to 35% — by 2070.
The opposite two models are “rising disaffiliation.” One model put limits on the share of Christians who leave the religion at 50%. The opposite model set no limits on disaffiliation. Under the “rising disaffiliation” scenarios, nones outpace Christians sometime between 2050 and 2060.
Only the no-switching model, which Pew called “counterfactual,” allowed Christianity to retain its U.S. majority. The steady-switching scenario gave Christians a 46%-41% plurality. Under the rising-disaffiliation models, Christianity was relegated to minority status, with with lower than 40% of all Americans.
Pew did 4 alternative scenarios, by which every mother transmitted their faith to every of her children; if religious groups had equal birthrates; if immigration stopped after 2030; and if older Christians stopped switching from belief to unaffiliated status. Christianity would lose its majority status but retain plurality status through 2070 under all 4 scenarios.
Pew suggested at reasons behind the growing move over the past generation to disaffiliate from Christian denominations.
“It is feasible that events outside the study’s model — reminiscent of war, economic depression, climate crisis, changing immigration patterns or religious innovations — could reverse current religious switching trends, resulting in a revival of Christianity in the USA,” the report said.
Pew said that the U.S. experience could model what’s happened in Europe. “In Great Britain, for instance, nones surpassed Christians to turn into the most important group in 2009, in accordance with the British Social Attitudes Survey,” it noted. “Within the Netherlands, disaffiliation accelerated within the Nineteen Seventies, and 47% of adults now say they’re Christian.” The study noted that the majority disaffiliation ends by the age of 30.
The report focused on sociological trends that played into its projections.
“On this study, transmission rates are calculated based on the share of kids who inherit their mother’s religion — or their mother’s unaffiliated identity — because moms are likely to successfully transmit their religious identities more often than fathers do. Also, roughly 1 / 4 of kids under 18 live in single-parent households, that are overwhelmingly headed by moms,” Pew said.
“Americans who’ve moved away from Christianity usually tend to be men, while women usually tend to retain their Christian identity.”
“The 4 fundamental scenarios presented here vary primarily of their assumptions concerning the future of spiritual switching amongst Americans between the ages of 15 and 29 — that are the years when most religious change happens,” it added. “Only a modest amount of switching is modeled amongst older adults.”
Pew suggested at reasons behind the growing move over the past generation to disaffiliate from Christian denominations.
“Within the U.S., an association of Christianity with conservative politics has driven many liberals away from the religion. Still other theories involve declining trust in religious institutions, clergy scandals, rising rates of spiritual intermarriage, smaller families, and so forth. When asked, Americans give a wide selection of reasons for leaving religion behind.”
Men bear some responsibility for the shrinking numbers of Christians, in accordance with the report.
“Americans who’ve moved away from Christianity usually tend to be men, while women usually tend to retain their Christian identity,” Pew said. “A slight majority of U.S. adults who were raised Christian and are actually unaffiliated (54%) are male. Amongst individuals who have remained Christian, 57% are women.”
Immigration was once seen as adding more Christians to the U.S. population. “Within the Nineteen Nineties and early 2000s, the most important variety of recent arrivals to the U.S. were from Mexico and other Christian-majority countries in Central and South America,” the report said.
“Today, recent arrivals usually tend to come from Asia. In 2018, the highest country of origin for brand spanking new immigrants was China (which is majority unaffiliated), followed by India (which is majority Hindu).”
The study issued a conjecture that Christianity could rebound if it falls into minority status if adherents give attention to retaining Christian identity, although nones currently show little tendency to hitch a faith. “While this bottoming out and regrowth of Christianity is theoretically possible,” Pew said, “it will require a reversal of the present trends in switching.”
