Aaron Judge will very likely win MVP again. However the race isn’t quite over.
Not less than it shouldn’t be.
Even putting aside that Bobby Witt Jr. is tied with Judge atop Fangraphs fWAR at 9.6 and only barely behind in bWAR (9.5 to 9.1), Witt is having a comparably compelling season.
Judge’s power and overall numbers are eye-popping (his 217 OPS plus ranks with all-time greats), he’s a high-quality center fielder (and maybe that extra responsibility explains why he’s slumped these days), and he takes his captaincy seriously.
Judge leads MLB in home runs (51), RBIs (126), on-base percentage (.454), slugging (.686) and OPS (1.140), and Witt leads in batting average (.333), runs (120) and hits (195). And as great at Judge is within the clutch, Witt has been even higher. Witt leads the AL with a .379 batting average and 1.166 OPS with runners in scoring position, and has a .366/.446/.648 slash line close and late.
Plus, Witt, an excellent shortstop, is third in MLB with 18 outs above average.
And as vital as Judge is, Witt has a young team in payoff position off its 56-win season in 2023.
