Next month’s 469 midterm congressional elections pit Republican candidates against Democrats in an important struggle for control of Capitol Hill. But there are other ways than through the prism of party to view the November campaign — and the consequence on Election Day may rely upon which of those other narratives prevails:
— Inflation against abortion
These two elements are proxies for most of the current House and Senate races across the country. The Republicans are emphasizing inflation, now at the very best levels in a generation. The Democrats are stressing abortion rights, now more endangered than they’ve been in a generation.
Immediately inflation is winning. Actually, it’s way ahead.
Take a moment to do some advanced math. The newest Latest York Times/Siena College poll shows that the proportion of those polled who believed inflation was the most important issue facing the country ballooned from 36 percent in July to 44 percent now. Now add on this and stir vigorously: Those that imagine that economic issues are the preeminent issue at once line up by greater than two-to-one with the Republicans.
Yet another element to combine in: The newest CBS News poll shows that Americans by a staggering margin of greater than a four-to-one imagine the economy will worsen. Although data assembled from Federal Reserve sources by the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute show that the economy since 1947 has grown a percentage point more under Democrats than Republicans, for a lot of the past decade, the Gallup Poll has found the general public believes the Republicans to be the higher stewards of the economy.
That’s a headwind that makes the Democrats’ tasks even tougher.
Advantage: Republicans.
Caveat: A University of California, Santa Barbara, study examined inflation and job growth through the years and located that, within the characterization of political scientist John T. Wooley, “neither variable is strongly correlated with midterm seat gains or losses.” As for abortion, the Democratic offensive aimed toward women could also be tapering off; the Latest York Times/Siena poll found an astonishing swing amongst women who discover as Independents, from favoring Democrats by 14 points in September to favoring Republicans now by 18 points. Overall, the 10-point Democratic advantage amongst women has dropped like autumn leaves within the Adirondacks
— a dire warning for Democrats who relied on women’s vote of their 2018 midterm surge.
— Donald Trump versus Joe Biden
Let’s leave aside the Karl Marx maxim about history repeating itself first as tragedy, then as farce, regardless that in 2022 there’s a robust argument for each. Nobody is wanting to relive the 2020 election, nevertheless it is indisputable that these midterm contests are coda to 2020.
Each men are on the campaign trail, with Mr. Biden having two stops within the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania last week alone. Each are talking about election integrity, though from starkly different perspectives. The president’s emphasis is on fundraising; his predecessor’s emphasis is on inspiring money payments. The 2 are scorpions in a horror-film bottle, lashing out against one another.
Advantage: Neither. The 2 have astonishing disapproval rankings; the difference between the 2 on that critical measure is inside the margin of error. The country desires to move on. Perhaps these two should heed the general public’s desperate call.
Caveat No. 1: Perhaps greater than Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump’s future as a presidential contender is dependent upon the November results.
He’ll, after all, claim an enormous margin of victory in races where he has endorsed Republicans — but many if not most of those victorious Republicans will likely be in protected states or districts and would have won regardless. The important thing races to observe are Senate contests in Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the gubernatorial races in Arizona, Maryland and Pennsylvania. If Mr. Trump’s record is below .500, then GOP strategists may conclude he’s yesterday’s cat food.
Caveat No. 2: Watch out for over-interpreting midterm congressional elections and projecting them two years forward onto a presidential election. Ronald Reagan’s Republicans lost 27 seats within the House in 1982 after which he won a landslide reelection victory in 1984. Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost 52 House seats a decade later after which cruised to reelection in 1996. And Barack Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, but he was reelected two years later.
— Precedent versus present conditions
The history is evident on this, with the party holding the White House since 1934 suffering a mean lack of 28 seats within the House and 4 within the Senate. But as investment counselors warn, past performance is probably not indicative of future results. That may possibly be the case in 2022.
Advantage: Republicans, consistent with patterns broken only twice since 1938: in 1998 (five seats amid Mr. Clinton’s impeachment imbroglio) and 2022 (eight seats within the wake of George W. Bush’s popularity push after the terrorist attacks of 2001). The party within the White House has gained Senate seats only six times in midterms since 1934, nevertheless it is plausible that might occur this time, possibly with Ohio and Pennsylvania victories.
Caveat: History has its limits as a prognosticator. So do broad political trends. Midterm elections are studied by political scientists and commentators but are conducted in parts.
House races are conducted in specific geographical areas, each with its own character, traditions and political outlook, often but not at all times a part of a national trend, the outcomes sometimes but not at all times depending on the personality and quality of the candidate. Amid the 2018 Republican wreckage, for instance, were GOP candidates who bucked the national trend by replacing Democrats within the House from California, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Latest Mexico, Latest York, Oklahoma and South Carolina. A GOP wave could produce Democratic lawmakers in districts now controlled by Republicans.
— Predictions versus performance
Only the unwise are sure of election results before Election Day. On the surface, Mr. Clinton was a wounded figure when voters went to the polls in 1998; impeachment proceedings had just begun against him for having an affair with a White House intern, and Republicans hoped to choose up greater than two dozen seats. The GOP held the House but lost seats, the primary time for the reason that presidency of James Monroe that the party holding the White House increased its House delegation in a president’s second term.
Caveat: Bettors beware. You’ll do much better wagering on this weekend’s NFL games.
David M. Shribman is the previous executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
