The dream scenario was to go 4-for-4 within the PrizePicks selections for Wild Card Weekend, but alas, Leonard Fournette and the Buccaneers had other ideas. The excellent news is that Cameron Dicker, Daniel Jones, and Dalton Schultz all covered their props.
While there’s room for improvement, hitting 75% of the picks is an appropriate end result. It was a wild weekend of football, and we should always have a good higher one on tap for the Divisional Round.
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PrizePicks player props for the NFL playoffs
Jerick McKinnon over 57.5 rushing + receiving yards
If you’ve gotten perused the PrizePicks lobby, you may be wondering why I selected the rushing + receiving prop, when his rushing prop is at 19.5 yards and his receiving prop is at 33.5 yards. The reply is straightforward – he could cover this prop with 30 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards or with 15 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards. This route offers peace of mind, as all now we have to fret about is him racking up yards from scrimmage.
During the last six games, McKinnon has played on near 50% of the snaps. During that stretch, he has averaged 23.6 rushing yards and 45.6 receiving yards. A matchup against the Jaguars sets up well for McKinnon, as Jacksonville is one in all the largest pass-funnel defenses within the league. In other words, they’re tough against the run and vulnerable through the air. If the Chiefs lean into the matchup, we could easily see McKinnon out-snap Isiah Pacheco.
Saquon Barkley over 70.5 rushing yards
Barkley only had 28 rushing yards on nine carries in his first game against the Eagles this season, however the Giants were down by three scores early in the primary half and were fiddling with a big deficit the whole game. When the Giants opted to rest their starters in Week 18 against Philadelphia, Gary Brightwell and Matt Breida combined for 15 carries and 88 rushing yards.
Brian Daboll is the most effective coaches within the league at game-planning for his opponents. Against the Vikings, he went with a pass-heavy approach because that’s where he knew that they had the largest advantage. The Eagles are first in DVOA against the pass and twenty first in DVOA against the run, so we are able to expect more of a run-heavy approach this week. The Giants don’t need to get right into a shootout with the Eagles, and running the ball will keep Jalen Hurts and company on the sidelines.
Josh Allen under 44.5 rushing yards
When you leaf through Allen’s game log, you will note numerous variance in each his rushing attempts and his rushing yards. He’s a tricky quarterback to bring down and he’s faster than he looks, which makes him a threat to achieve yards on the bottom anytime the pocket collapses.
While it’s never fun picking against Allen on any prop, the matchup doesn’t arrange well for his rushing upside. The Bengals are twenty eighth in adjusted sack rate, while the Bills’ offensive line is sixth in adjusted sack rate. Allen must have loads of time within the pocket to choose apart this secondary. Moreover, Cincinnati allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game (10.8) to opposing quarterbacks throughout the regular season.
Betting on the NFL?
Ezekiel Elliott under 34.5 rushing yards
How will you not love the under on Zeke’s rushing prop this week? For starters, he was out-snapped by Tony Pollard within the Wild Card round. Fantasy players have been clamoring for this to occur for years, and the Cowboys are finally starting to offer Pollard more work. Zeke played on 48% of the snaps against the Buccaneers and was only in a position to turn 13 carries into 27 yards. In his last three games combined, he has averaged under two yards per carry.
It’s not like we are able to expect many rushing lanes to open up for Zeke this week against the Niners, as they allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game (78.5) throughout the regular season. The Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs and will find themselves in a pass-heavy game script in the event that they fall behind early. Essentially, now we have an inefficient running back in a nasty matchup and in a potentially bad game script.
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