A fan of Japanese manga reads a comic book in his home in Kamisu in Japan’s Ibaraki Prefecture.
Philip Fong | Afp | Getty Images
Visitor interest in Japan plunged in June, amid a prophecy in a manga that predicted a “disaster” would strike Japan in July 2025.
The prediction was in a 2021 reprint of a Japanese comic book, or manga, titled “Watashi ga Mita Mirai, Kanzenban” (which translates to “The Future That I Saw, Complete Edition”) by artist Ryo Tatsuki.
In the unique printing of the book in 1999, the quilt page referenced a “disaster in March 2011.”
In March 2011, Japan suffered its strongest earthquake on record, the Great Tohoku Earthquake, which caused almost 20,000 deaths and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
The Amazon listing for the reprint stated that the writer had “latest prophetic dreams” including the “real disaster will are available July 2025,” in keeping with a Google translation.
CN Yuen, managing director of Hong Kong-based travel agency WWPKG told CNBC that the rumor was widely circulated in Hong Kong, where it spread over mainstream media, TV networks and thru YouTube influencers.
Visitors arrivals from Hong Kong plunged 33.4% 12 months on 12 months in June, following an earlier 11.2% drop in May, in keeping with Japan’s National Tourism Organization.
Yuen said his agency has seen a 50% decrease in bookings and inquiries in April and May to Japan from last 12 months.
Tourist arrivals from other Asian countries also experienced slower growth. Arrivals from South Korea rose just 3.8% in June compared with May’s 11.8%. Arrivals from Taiwan slowed significantly as well, from a 15.5% increase in May to 1.8% in June.
Overseas visitors to Japan grew 24%, on average, from January to May of this 12 months, in comparison with 2024. But June arrivals only saw a 7.6% increase, in keeping with Japan’s travel statistics.
‘Perfect storm’
WWPKG’s Yuen said he’s used to travel downturns related to natural disasters, which normally end after the incident is over.
But “this time, it’s different, because nothing happened actually. It’s only a rumor, or prophecy,” he told CNBC. “That is the primary time we have seen such an incident.”
Hong Kong and Japanese media reported earlier in July that Hong Kong airlines cut flights to some Japanese cities, including Nagoya.
A January report from Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, citing the country’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, also warned that the likelihood of a megaquake in the following 30 years had risen to 80%—a development that, combined with the prediction, created a “perfect storm” to discourage travelers, Yuen said.
Nonetheless, Japan’s Meteorological Agency said: “It needs to be noted that the issuance of knowledge indicating elevated potential for a Nankai Trough earthquake doesn’t necessarily mean that one will actually strike.”
Asian tourists more affected than Western ones
JNTO data showed that the share of Asian tourists fell 12 months on 12 months in June, but that of Western countries rose.
Experts CNBC spoke to gave various reasons, including cultural ones.
“Manga isn’t just entertainment; it’s widely read across age groups and carries a little bit of cultural authority in some Asian societies,” said Zimbayah Kamble, a senior lecturer for hospitality at James Cook University.
That, combined with memories of past disasters and the fact of Japan’s seismic vulnerability, mean that such warnings “resonate strongly” within the region, she said.
Kiattipoom Kiatkawsin, associate professor of hospitality and tourism management from the Singapore Institute of Management, said the rapid spread of the rumors through social media platforms and the collectivist nature of many Asian societies led to a social amplification of perceived risk.
“Which means that even when some individuals have doubts, the collective response of their community or peers can significantly influence their decisions, resulting in widespread behavioral changes, reminiscent of travel cancelations,” Kiatkawsin said.
“On this case, a fictional narrative amplified by social media could have created a compelling, if scientifically unfounded reason to defer travel,” he said.
But each experts also pointed to a more extraordinary reason: the pliability of short-haul travel.
Kiatkawsin said the prices of canceling the flights and hotel bookings will not be perceived as a barrier anymore.
“In the event that they don’t travel to Japan this time, they’ll go one other time without much hassle to rearrange again,” he added.
Kiatkawsin said he doesn’t expect the prediction will affect Japan’s overall travel outlook, on condition that the prediction is restricted to the month of July.
— CNBC’s Kaela Ling contributed to this story.
