It has been a tumultuous yr for electric vehicle stocks, and two investor favorites, Tesla and Rivian , have been no exception. Tesla’s stock is down around 72% for the yr — plummeting 42% in December thus far. Its prospects have been sidetracked by the chaos at Twitter, to which Elon Musk — the CEO of each corporations — has redirected among the automaker’s resources . Rivian, for its part, struggled with supply chain issues that made it cut its guidance by half earlier this yr. It recently reiterated that it could actually meet its 2022 production goal of 25,000 vehicles in 2022, but as of the third quarter, the number stood at just 14,317. Its shares are down about 82% for the yr. But what’s going to the yr ahead seem like for each stocks? CNBC Pro spoke to analysts and trawled through Wall Street research to seek out out. Tesla George Gianarikas, senior analyst at Canaccord Genuity, told CNBC in September that Tesla is the “clear leader” within the EV sector, and gave it a price goal of $801, or 190% upside. More recently, in early December, he told CNBC Pro that his price goal for Tesla is $304. Gianarikas said Tesla’s full self-driving beta release must be a tailwind for the firm’s revenue and gross margin in 2023. Nonetheless, he said, “While we should not Twitter analysts, Tesla’s stock performance has now, unfortunately, turn into loosely tied to news about Twitter’s economic prospects. For now, we view this as short-term noise and, over the medium to long run, see Tesla’s stock tied to Tesla’s earnings.” In accordance with a recent report from Evercore, nevertheless, Tesla shouldn’t be yet facing any serious competition, with its U.S. market share at greater than 70%. In some unspecified time in the future, nevertheless, a “slew of latest, lower-priced and compelling entrants threatens to erode market share below 50% threshold,” Evercore analysts said. “With this said: our report shouldn’t be a “Latest EVs vs TSLA” Call – Tesla will proceed to dominate the US market share through 2025 or 2026,” they wrote. Evercore gave Tesla a price goal of $350 for 2023, or upside of 220%. Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of asset manager Navellier & Associates, is less optimistic, giving Tesla a one-year price goal of $150, or simply 37% upside. He told CNBC Pro that as EVs are still considered “luxury vehicles” in light of the high prices of battery components, EV makers will find it hard to realize profitability. Rivian Gianarikas also recently lowered Rivian’s price goal from $61 to $55. “Rivian continues to enhance operations, ramp production and enhance product quality,” he said. “While supply chain issues proceed to hamper the slope of production improvements, demand stays strong despite a worsening macroeconomic environment.” Evercore gave Rivian a price goal of $35 for 2023, or 97% upside — lower than its 220% for Tesla. “What holds us back from a more optimistic outlook on Rivian? Despite management noting the corporate has money to cover the launch of the R2 platform, we see Rivian requiring ~$4- 6 [billion] in funding through ’26, while burning $7-9 [billion] ’23 through ’26,” it said, referring to its upcoming EV architecture platform. Navellier told CNBC Pro that Rivian is a stock to avoid, saying he doesn’t expect the firm to realize profitability. “I worry that Rivian is not going to have the ability to achieve economies of scale to achieve profitability as battery costs remain high. Also, since each Ford and GM might be selling electric pickups at substantially lower prices, I believe that they’ll take market share from Rivian,” he said. “The incontrovertible fact that Ford decided to sell Rivian stock quite than partner with Rivian is a long-term problem,” he added. He gave Rivian a one-year price goal of $15, or 15% downside. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom, John Rosevear contributed to this report.
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