Because of a clutch homer from Giancarlo Stanton and a robust showing from their bullpen, the Yankees earned a 3-2 victory in Game 3 of their ALDS with the Royals and now have a chance to shut out the series Thursday with their ace on the mound.
Game 4 will repeat the pitching matchup of Game 1, with Gerrit Cole set to square off against Michael Wacha again.
Neither starter fared particularly well within the series opener, as they combined to permit six earned runs across nine innings of labor in a 6-5 Yankees victory. It happened in a game that set the MLB playoff record for lead changes.
With a surprising over/under of seven.5 for Thursday night’s Game 4 (8:08 p.m., TBS), oddsmakers aren’t expecting an identical storyline.
Yankees vs. Royals Game 4 ALDS odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -150 | -1.5 (+100) | o7.5 (-120) |
| Royals | +125 | +1.5 (-130) | u7.5 (+100) |
Yankees vs. Royals prediction
You possibly can argue Kansas City has three starters higher than Wacha, making it lower than ideal that he’ll make two starts on this series.
In his last 4 appearances, Wacha has an xFIP of 4.36 and a Stuff+ rating of 91.
He doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, and the Yankees saw him well in Game 1, managing a .266 xBA and walking thrice.
The Yankees were one of the best team within the league against right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 120.
Cole allowed seven hits in Game 1 and managed just 4 strikeouts. The Royals held a 65% hard-hit rate in that matchup off the right-hander and a .355 xBA.
Over his last five starts, Cole has been solid, but his underlying numbers aren’t quite as much as the standards of an ace, with a 3.93 xFIP and a Pitching+ rating of 106.
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In his last three appearances, he has allowed an 86.1% zone-contact rate and his swinging strike rate is all the way down to 9%.
The Royals have been more practical offensively at home, where they hold drastically higher plate-discipline numbers. They’ve hit to a wRC+ of 100 versus righties at Kauffman Stadium and put up a sixth-ranked K/BB ratio.
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The bullpens are in barely worse shape than they were in Game 1, and in comparison with Yankees Stadium, “The K” is a greater ballpark for run creation.
As these starters look to bounce back after ugly performances within the opener, I think this game should hold a better total than 7.5.
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-115, bet365)
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Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the Recent York Post. He strives to incorporate relevant game notes in articles to assist bettors come to their very own conclusions, but can also be up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You’ll find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
