I would like to test-drive a theory, so thanks upfront for stopping by.
It’s an concept that has been forming the past two weeks as I watched the Yankees play a home-and-home series over two weekends with the Rays before heading to Toronto.
I believe the games throughout the AL East are going to be, typically, thrilling and theatrical; dramatic and traumatic; passionate and poignant. They’ve been to this point.
The Yankees played seven games against the Rays. Six were decided by one run. Most felt like the most effective sorts of heavyweight fights. Backwards and forwards. Skill and can merging.
Then on the Rogers Centre, conspiracy and consternation flowed. Where was Aaron Judge darting his eyes? How petty could each team get concerning the positioning of base coaches? What was on Domingo German’s hands? And just who was “fat boy”?
Why are we getting this throughout the AL East, and why do I believe it would proceed?
OK, here is my theorem: Fewer games against one another plus top-to-bottom excellence equals the heightened meaning of every of those games — and the teams realize it.
The return of the balanced schedule this 12 months reduces the variety of intra-division games against each opponent from 19 to 13. That’s 24 fewer games throughout the division.
Generally, what’s rare is invaluable (see also: diamonds and classic first-edition books). The Yankees and Blue Jays accomplished their first home-and-home series Thursday. The following time they see one another is to begin the Yankees’ final homestand on Sept. 19 and to begin the Yankees’ final road trip on Sept. 26.
The saying is familiarity breeds contempt. But the dearth of it this 12 months goes to raise contempt and competition.
the rule on division matchups: They’re price two games within the standings — the one you win and the one they lose. And now there are fewer opportunities to create that form of swing. And it’s becoming evident just how precious each win and loss will likely be on this division.
All five AL East teams are at the least 4 games over .500 and plus-16 in run differential. But when the season ended Thursday, the Red Sox wouldn’t have made the playoffs and the Yankees and Blue Jays would have eked in by a half-game.
Much has been made concerning the Rays pumping up their record in games outside the division. They’re 10-7 against the AL East and 22-6 vs. every other club. First, 10-7 is a .588 winning percentage, which is superb against any competition. Second, it’s the most effective intra-division record within the AL East. The Blue Jays are 5-9 throughout the division, the Orioles are 6-6, the Red Sox are 7-7 and the Yankees are 9-8. The Red Sox’s performance was symbolic: Not only were they .500 in AL East games, but that they had scored 85 runs and given up 85 runs.
The standard of the teams, the meaning of the games and just having fewer of them in stock guarantees to bring out the most effective — and worst (see: “fat boy”) — in all five clubs.
Historically, the competition and contempt was intensified in Yankees-Red Sox series. Lately, Yankees-Rays did a superb imitation. But I sense the reduction of head-to-head games and the abundance of quality teams goes to extend the importance and stress levels in these AL East tilts.
It’s why on this week’s Awards Watch, I’m rating the divisions up to now, and, if we were being fair, a ballot might appear to be this: 1. AL East. ……….. 6. Five-way tie.
That’s the space between the AL East and the opposite divisions.
The AL West, for instance, has 4 teams with positive run differentials, but just three over .500 (the Angels are 23-22) and in addition comprises by far the worst team within the majors — the 10-35 A’s, who’ve a minus-161 run differential.
Also, consider that AL East teams were 98-51 in games outside the division, a .658 winning percentage. The following best is the NL West at 74-70 (.514). The NL East is next at 77-76 (.503). Then the NL Central 79-88 (.473), the AL West 69-80 (.463) and AL Central 64-96 (.400). Within the AL Central, the Twins are 24-20 with a plus-42 run differential. The opposite 4 clubs are a combined 69-105 with a minus-204 run differential.
I’ll pardon the AL West for having the A’s because the opposite 4 clubs range from average to above-average, and I’d put that division second behind the AL East, followed by the NL West, NL East, NL Central and AL Central.
Whose profession do you bought?
I actually have been a part of the committee the past few years that decides which players who’ve played in 10 seasons and have been retired for five years needs to be placed on the Hall of Fame ballot.
It’s an enjoyable chore for just a few reasons. However it jogs my memory concerning the form of excellent profession that’s more likely to fall in need of the Hall. Yet, wow, take a look at the totality of all of it. It’s a top 5 or 10 percent profession all-time. It’s the form of profession that moves me to recommend putting the player on the ballot, partially within the hope that at some point the revealing of the ballot comes with somewhat more pomp to acknowledge the outstanding but not immortal player.
My suspicion is that at some point Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner will fall into this category. It is difficult to see one making the ballot and never the opposite. Namely because there are such a lot of similarities between the pair, which is why they’re featured on this week’s “Whose profession do you bought?”
In its most simplistic form, these two are late-blooming third basemen. Donaldson was not a daily and difference maker until his age-27 season, Turner not until 29.
Donaldson has an edge in bulk numbers, but does Turner compensate (and more) together with his unbelievable bulk work within the postseason? Donaldson broke in at 24, and is in his age-37 season. Turner broke in at 24, and is in his age-38 season.
Desire a quirky similarity?
Donaldson in his profession has 40 steals with 10 caught stealing. Turner has 43 steals with 10 caught stealing.
Donaldson won the 2015 AL MVP, has two fourth-place finishes and has received MVP votes in six years. Turner has received MVP votes in three years, never ending higher than eighth. Turner was good at third base, but Donaldson is viewed as the higher defender.
For his or her careers:
Donaldson: 5,684 plate appearances, 267 homers, .264/.361/.491, 131 OPS-plus, 42.8 WAR
Turner: 5,336 plate appearances, 169 homers, .289/.366/.465, 125 OPS-plus, 36.0 WAR
In 46 profession postseason games and 203 plate appearances, Donaldson is .246/.335/.397 with five homers.
In 86 profession postseason games and 368 plate appearances, Turner is .270/.370/.460 with 13 homers. Plus, he was the 2017 NLCS MVP, and when the Dodgers won all of it in 2020, Turner hit .320 with six extra-base hits and a 1.066 OPS in six World Series games against the Rays.
Their 10-year primes are also comparable: From 2012-21, Donaldson had a slash line of 270/.368/.506 with a 136 OPS-plus.
From 2013-22, Turner was .295/.273/.485 with a 132 OPS-plus.
But note, Donaldson’s run ends in 2021. He was bad last season (94 OPS-plus) after which abysmal within the postseason (5-for-29, no RBI, 16 strikeouts). He was off to a poor start again this 12 months (.125 average in five games) before going to the IL due to a hamstring injury.
Turner still posted a 118 OPS-plus last 12 months, and had a 115 OPS-plus this 12 months for the Red Sox, mainly as a primary baseman/DH.
So he may have the option so as to add to his resume higher than Donaldson will in his twilight years.
The book is just not closed yet on either player. But, for now, whose profession do you bought?
Got my attention
There was a lot improbable concerning the Mets’ 8-7 comeback victory in 10 innings Wednesday night against the Rays.
But here is one which might need eluded your radar:
The Rays were 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts — and lost.
The last time a team had at the least seven stolen bases without being caught and still lost was Sept. 16, 2011. The Rays were the losers that point, too, 4-3 against the Red Sox. Six of the seven steals were against the battery of Josh Beckett and Jason Varitek; the last was against Jonathan Papelbon and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Johnny Damon stole three bases in that game for the Rays, Desmond Jennings had two and Casey Kotchman and B.J. Upton had one each. The one player who appeared in that game who continues to be lively was Red Sox reliever Daniel Bard, now with the Rockies.
Between Sept. 16, 2011, and May 17, 2023, eight teams had stolen at the least seven bases in a game without being caught, and all eight won.
Roster stuff perhaps only I notice
Kole Calhoun has an out of his minor league Yankees contract on June 1. He’s one in all multiple veteran lefty hitters the Yankees imported to try to offer them depth options on the side of the plate where they’ve been in need of options in recent seasons.
Heck, the Yankees cornered the market on each lively lefty-swinging Calhouns — Kole and Willie.
Besides the Calhouns, there are Jake Bauers, Franchy Cordero, Billy McKinney, switch-hitter Wilmer Difo and even Estevan Florial, who was faraway from the 40-man roster when the Yankees needed to get emergency arm Colten Brewer to the large leagues earlier within the season, but cleared waivers and went to Triple-A.
Kole Calhoun didn’t make the Mariners out of camp, and was released from his contract. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal, and he had an initial six-game burst at Triple-A during which he was 11-for-22 with three homers, 4 walks and 4 strikeouts. In his next five games, Calhoun went 2-for-22 with nine strikeouts.
Whether he stays or leaves is a smaller a part of two bigger-picture Yankees issues:
1. The Yankees’ overall left-handedness. In 2016, the Yankees took the majors’ second-most lefty plate appearances (3,628). They’ve not been in the highest half of the league since, ending seventeenth in 2017, twenty second in 2018, twenty seventh in 2019, thirtieth in 2020, twenty eighth in 2021 and twenty second in 2022.
They were twenty fifth this season (through Wednesday).
The rightward shift happened because the Yankees’ fixation became on what they perceived as adding the most effective players within the draft, internationally and in trades — and never on left-right balance. So the arrival of players corresponding to Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit brought a powerful tilt to the proper.
Often, the Yankees had righties who hit righties well plus had opposite-field power to capitalize on the short porch in right field. But the dearth of lineup balance was often exposed within the postseason, when opponents could use power righty relievers to undergo large swaths of the Yankees lineup.
Deadline trades for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo in 2021 was in recognition of needing greater balance. The Yankees’ past three first-round draft picks even have been lefty hitters in Austin Wells, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Jones; plus their top prospect, Jasson Dominguez, is a switch-hitter.
And their binge of lefty depth pieces corresponding to the Calhouns, Bauers, etc., is not any accident. There are a greater variety of games now through which the Yankees use three or 4 lefty hitters against a righty starter. On this week’s series opener against the Blue Jays, they used five.
But what’s noticeable is how infrequently Aaron Boone was starting Aaron Hicks against righties. Hicks began Thursday against Toronto’s Jose Berrios, his second start up to now seven games the Yankees had against a righty starter. Hicks went into that game 4-for-45 against righty pitching, then went 3-for-4.
That results in query 2 …
2. How long do the Yankees follow Hicks? The Yankees said Wednesday that Giancarlo Stanton was nearing a rehab task. Stanton definitely leads the majors within the category during recent seasons: nearing rehab assignments.
When Stanton returns and Josh Donaldson does, the necessity for the switch-hitting Hicks to begin even against righties will go way down, if not vanish entirely. And already Hicks is hardly starting against lefties. So what does that leave?
Boone is showing an affinity for Willie Calhoun and particularly Bauers over Hicks. Neither Calhoun nor Bauers has minor league options remaining, and there may be an honest probability that at the least Bauers could be claimed on waivers if the Yankees tried to send him down.
If the Yankees get Donaldson and Stanton back without losing anyone else (don’t laugh), they’re sure things on the roster together with Kyle Higashioka, Jose Trevino, Anthony Rizzo, Torres, Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Harrison Bader and Judge.
That’s 10. So it would depart three slots for Hicks, Calhoun, Bauer, Oswaldo Cabrera and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Cabrera could possibly be optioned, and his poor offense could justify it. But should you were going to retain a switch-hitter with offensive problems, would you retain a man who can play every position with competence or higher or would you retain Hicks? Kiner-Falefa is a righty contact bat with speed who can play all around the field — an honest twenty sixth man. Then there are Bauers and Calhoun, and Boone already has shown his favoritism.
This week on “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman” podcast, Hal Steinbrenner said he would eat money if his baseball officials really useful it as the most effective solution to help the 2023 team win. Hicks is due about $26.7 million through the 2025 season.
Last licks
The ejections of Max Scherzer and Domingo German for what was deemed illegal sticky stuff each occurred once they were taking the sector for the fourth inning.
The usual is that umpires check the starting pitchers once they leave the sector after a half-inning of pitching. But when the hope is to curtail excessive (and illegal) sticky stuff, some unanticipated checks on the solution to the mound should turn into routine.
Give it some thought: The check for the illegal — at airports, ballparks, clubs, etc. — is on the way in which in, not the way in which out.
The rule is that a pitcher cannot apply even legal rosin within the dugout. It needs to be what’s on the mound. So, the pitcher should arrive to the mound without anything sticky on his hand (though pitchers have told me it is difficult to scrub even legal rosin quickly and completely between innings, and pitchers don’t want to overwash and soften their hands between innings).
Now, a pitcher can hide a substance somewhere that’s not on his hands and potentially avoid detection. But this is able to add one other layer of examination to discourage the behavior.
The controversy also continues over whether the umpires really can distinguish between what is usually described because the tackiness of legal rosin and the stickiness of illegal substances. It calls for a latest reality series: “CSI: Pitcher’s Mound.” In a moment when there are questions on what’s on a pitcher’s hands, a trained criminologist in a hazmat suit comes out and swabs the alleged perpetrator’s hands. Then it’s off to the labs and microscopes.
You’re telling me that if the reading of the outcomes were placed on the MLB Network live that it wouldn’t draw an audience?
Criminologist into the TV camera: Now we have deemed the substance is an illegal combination of Elmer’s glue and silly string.
Yes, there’s some absurdity here (though I do think people would watch).
But there may be some absurdity as a part of the sticky practice. Evidently we’re going to get some scripted elements to sticky-stuff ejections.
In each cases this 12 months, the crew chief said within the aftermath that it was the stickiest substance that they had ever encountered on a baseball field.
I ponder what will likely be said when a crew chief has a second ejection this 12 months. That is the stickiest stuff ever, the sequel?
And each Scherzer and German said a part of the rationale they didn’t appeal their suspensions was that they learned that an MLB official, not a neutral arbitrator, hears the case, just about removing the prospect of winning the appeal.
First, this is just not latest. It’s collectively bargained. Second, should you are innocent or feel there are extenuating circumstances, putting it on paper to potentially exonerate yourself or set a precedent for the following accused pitcher has value.
And I assume if one player paid it forward to assist the following player in trouble, he could be described by his peers as, well, a glue guy.
That is not any solution to head to vacation, I do know. Yet there I am going. See everyone back here in two weeks.
