A passenger looks at aircrafts at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia on July 2, 2025.
Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images
Getting cash in the summertime is just not as easy because it was once for airlines.
Airlines have drawn down their schedules in August for quite a lot of reasons. Some travelers are opting to fly earlier, in June and even May, as schools let loose before they used to. Demand for flights to Europe has also been moving from the sweltering, crowded summer to the autumn, airline executives have said, especially for travelers with more flexibility, like retirees.
Carriers still make the majority of their money within the second and third quarters. But as travel demand has shifted, and in some cases customers have turn out to be altogether unpredictable, making the third quarter less of a shoo-in moneymaker for airlines.
Change of plans, pricier tickets
Airline planners have been forced to get more surgical with schedules in August as leisure demand tapers off from the late spring and summer peaks. Labor and other costs have jumped after the pandemic, so getting the combination of flights right is important.
Carriers across the industry have been taking flights off the schedule after an overhang of an excessive amount of capability pushed down fares this summer. However the capability cuts are set to further drive up airfares, which rose 0.7% in July from last yr, and a seasonally adjusted 4% jump from June to July, in response to the most recent U.S. inflation read.
U.S. airlines’ domestic capability is down 6% in August from July, in response to aviation data firm Cirium. The identical period last yr, they cut domestic capability just over 4% compared with only a 0.6% downsize between the months in 2023, Cirium said. From July to August in 2019, airlines cut 1.7% of capability.
Carriers that bet on a blockbuster yr were left upset earlier in 2025 when consumers weighed President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and economic uncertainty. To draw more customers, many airlines slashed prices, even for flights in the summertime peaks in late June and July.
Demand has improved, airline executives said on earnings calls in recent months, but carriers including Delta, American, United and Southwest last month lowered their 2025 profit forecasts compared with their sunnier outlooks initially of the yr.
Further complicating matters, some travelers have been also waiting until the last minute to book flights.
“It really was, I’d say, middle of May, after we began seeing Memorial Day bookings pick up,” JetBlue Airways President Marty St. George told investors last month. “We had a unbelievable Memorial Day, significantly better than forecast, and that basically carried into June. However it does have the sensation of individuals just waited an extended time to make the ultimate decisions.”Â
There’s all the time next yr
Now, some airlines are already occupied with how you can tackle ever-changing travel patterns next yr.
“Schools are going back earlier and earlier but what you furthermore mght see is schools are getting out earlier and earlier,” Â Brian Znotins, American Airlines‘ vp of network planning and schedule, told CNBC.
Public schools in Dallas and Fort Price, Texas, returned on Aug. 5, and Atlanta public schools resumed Aug. 4. In 2023, greater than half of the country’s public school students went back to classrooms by mid-August, in response to the Pew Research Center.
Southwest, with its Texas roots, ended its summer schedule on Aug. 5 this yr, compared with Aug. 15 in 2023. American, for its part, is shifting some peak flying next yr.
“We’re moving our whole summer schedule change to the week before Memorial Day,” Znotins said. “That is just in response to varsities letting out within the spring.” Those plans include additions of a number of long-haul international flights.
“We’re a year-round airline,” he continued. Znotins said the carrier has to not only make sure that there are enough seats for peak periods, but know when to reduce in lighter quarters, just like the first three months of the yr.
“For a network planner, the harder schedules to construct are those where there’s lower demand because you may’t just count on demand coming to your flights,” Znotins said. “When demand is lower, it’s worthwhile to find ways to draw customers to your flights with quality schedule and product changes.”
American said its schedule by seats in August was on par with July in 2019, but that this yr it was 6% lower in August from July.
American forecast last month it could lose an adjusted 10 cents to 60 cents a share within the third quarter, below what analysts predict. CEO Robert Isom said on an earnings call that “July has been tough,” though the carrier says trends have improved.
The capability cuts, coupled with more encouraging booking patterns currently, are fueling optimism a few higher supply and demand balance in the approaching weeks.
“The error some airlines make, you are likely to try to construct a church for Easter Sunday: You construct your capability foundation for those peak periods after which you’ve got way too many [employees],” said Raymond James airline analyst Savanthi Syth.
She said it was unusual to see airlines across the board pruning their summer schedules before even the height period ended, but she is upbeat about demand, and fares, going forward.
“Time has passed and individuals are getting slightly more certainty on what their future looks like they usually’re more willing to spend,” she said.
