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Spending from foreign visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall by $8.5 billion this 12 months as negative perceptions tied to trade and immigration policy lead overseas tourists to look elsewhere, in keeping with a research note published by Oxford Economics.
The spending decline, which works out to a drop of about 5% relative to last 12 months, is a results of less foot traffic. International arrivals to the U.S. are expected to fall about 9% this 12 months, Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, a part of Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note last week.
Businesses and geographies that depend on foreign tourists for commerce might be especially hard-hit.
Other estimates suggest the potential economic loss could also be even larger.
The World Travel & Tourism Council said this month it expects the U.S. economy to lose a “staggering” $12.5 billion in spending from international visitors in 2025, a “direct blow to the U.S. economy overall, impacting communities, jobs, and businesses from coast to coast.”
‘Perceptions of the US matter’ for travel
Trump administration “posturing and policy” tied to issues like border security and tariffs on long-standing trade partners have created “sentiment-headwinds” amongst would-be travelers, Ryan wrote.
Flight bookings to the U.S. between May and July were down 11% 12 months over 12 months as of April, signaling a “weak” outlook that is likely attributable to travelers looking elsewhere, Ryan wrote. Europe and Canada are notable laggards: air bookings are pacing greater than 10% and 33% behind, respectively.
“Travelers make decisions: where and when to travel, when to book, and the way long to remain and importantly, perceptions of the US matter,” Ryan added.
“Whether fair or not, a perception is taking hold that more persons are being detained, more devices [are] being searched and legal travelers [are] being deported back to their origin country,” Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, told CNBC earlier this month. “That creates an important deal of fear.”
Heading into 2025, Oxford Economics had expected roughly 9% growth in international arrivals and a 16% boost to their spending.
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