More widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic within the U.S. could boost the economy in the approaching years, in response to Goldman Sachs strategists.
The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, could increase the nation’s gross domestic product by an additional 1% over the following decade, the equivalent of about $360 billion per 12 months.
The considering behind Goldman’s forecast is that poor health is a burden to economic growth, largely since it limits the variety of available staff and hours worked attributable to increased missed days at work in consequence of “sickness and disability, early deaths and informal caregiving.”
In reality, Goldman said that GDP within the U.S. would potentially be greater than 10% higher if poor health outcomes didn’t affect the labor supply.
“The fundamental reason we see meaningful upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that would diminish if health outcomes improve,” the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote.
Drug firms are vying to hitch what has largely been a two-horse race to make obesity drugs.
Novo Nordisk – the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy – and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro, skyrocketed in popularity last 12 months amid runaway demand for the drugs, that are taken by A-listers including Oprah Winfrey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Similar drugs could enter the market depending on clinical trials.
Reuters
The market is predicted to top $100 billion by 2030, in response to one estimate from JPMorgan.
Goldman projects that anywhere between 10 million to 70 million Americans might be taking weight-loss drugs by 2028.
The wide selection stems from uncertainty over clinical trials, medical health insurance and available supply.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and leads to lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are each less prone to work and fewer productive after they do.”
The economy would grow by 0.4% in a scenario where there are 30 million users, and 1% if 60 million Americans were taking most of these drugs.
“Historically, health advancements have lowered the variety of life years lost to disease and disability by 10% per decade in DM economies, and we estimate that a 10-year step forward in health progress in excess of current trends could raise the extent of US GDP by 1%,” Hatzius said.
More widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic within the U.S. could boost the economy in the approaching years, in response to Goldman Sachs strategists.
The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, could increase the nation’s gross domestic product by an additional 1% over the following decade, the equivalent of about $360 billion per 12 months.
The considering behind Goldman’s forecast is that poor health is a burden to economic growth, largely since it limits the variety of available staff and hours worked attributable to increased missed days at work in consequence of “sickness and disability, early deaths and informal caregiving.”
In reality, Goldman said that GDP within the U.S. would potentially be greater than 10% higher if poor health outcomes didn’t affect the labor supply.
“The fundamental reason we see meaningful upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that would diminish if health outcomes improve,” the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote.
Drug firms are vying to hitch what has largely been a two-horse race to make obesity drugs.
Novo Nordisk – the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy – and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro, skyrocketed in popularity last 12 months amid runaway demand for the drugs, that are taken by A-listers including Oprah Winfrey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Similar drugs could enter the market depending on clinical trials.
Reuters
The market is predicted to top $100 billion by 2030, in response to one estimate from JPMorgan.
Goldman projects that anywhere between 10 million to 70 million Americans might be taking weight-loss drugs by 2028.
The wide selection stems from uncertainty over clinical trials, medical health insurance and available supply.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and leads to lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are each less prone to work and fewer productive after they do.”
The economy would grow by 0.4% in a scenario where there are 30 million users, and 1% if 60 million Americans were taking most of these drugs.
“Historically, health advancements have lowered the variety of life years lost to disease and disability by 10% per decade in DM economies, and we estimate that a 10-year step forward in health progress in excess of current trends could raise the extent of US GDP by 1%,” Hatzius said.
