Heidi Heitkamp is a Democrat who represented North Dakota within the U.S. Senate from 2013 to 2019. She’s also a contributor for CNBC.
Last week, after ceding control to the ultra-right wing of his party, Rep. Kevin McCarthy became the fifty fifth Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. This happened after the dysfunction and division of the Republican House majority was placed in full view to the American public. Most news coverage has focused on the historical uniqueness of this drama — the personality and sometimes physical conflicts — and the embarrassment to the House Republican Caucus.
Yes, lots of the 19 Republicans who voted repeatedly against McCarthy really dislike him. It was embarrassing, but this was not about embarrassment. Never underestimate that the true motivation for holding out was to pursue a technique which might give 19 ideologically driven, fiscal hardliners, an outsized role within the establishment of fiscal policy in America. Don’t look to the boring description of rule changes. Focus as an alternative on the implications of those rule changes.
McCarthy wanted the ability to set the agenda and consequently create coherent, unified messaging for the Republican Caucus within the upcoming 2024 election. The holdouts didn’t trust him to advance an ultra-right wing agenda inside that framework and compelled concessions from McCarthy last week that may drive the Republican party hard to the best. Constructing bridges and consensus on laws inside the Republican caucus shall be difficult, let alone with Democrats on the opposite side of the aisle.
By holding out, these 19 Members have secured an outsized role in fiscal policy that features a commitment to threaten the debt limit and on voting to chop so-called entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid). The U.S. is projected to hit the debt limit in a couple of months, and it’ll be as much as Republicans within the 118th Congress to step as much as avoid the economic stress for American families that may ensue if the U.S. defaults on its bonds.
People near retirement can be out 1000’s of dollars, jobs can be lost, mortgages and on a regular basis goods would cost more, seniors who depend upon Social Security wouldn’t receive their advantages on time, together with a lot of other issues that may hinder the U.S. economy to operate. These hard liners are also talking about massive cuts to military spending. Big picture, if the gamesmanship that played out last week becomes the norm within the House, it could have harrowing consequences for the American people.
By agreeing to their demands, McCarthy has lost control of the Republican message. The dirty little secret is that despite all of the rhetoric of Republican fiscal responsibility, the overwhelming majority of the Republican House caucus knows that forcing a vote may be very bad politics for many members and will thoroughly be political suicide for the long run of the Republican majority. Vote yes and anger a really loyal portion of the Republican base: Americans over the age of 65. Vote no and be labeled an enormous spending liberal and someone who will not be serious about debt and deficit.
Before he even had the speaker’s gavel in his hands, McCarthy failed two key tests of congressional leadership. First, by letting hardline messaging set the terms for his speakership, he showed that he cannot manage guiding Republicans through the transition from fire respiratory minority with no accountability to a governing majority that has responsibilities. Second, by freely giving the shop and allowing any member to place his tenure on the road at any time, he has shown that when push involves shove, he will not be strong enough to say “no” when the moment requires it. This sets up a dangerous dynamic for the high-stakes fiscal fights over the horizon.
I can hear it now, “Usual Democratic playbook: scare seniors about Social Security and Medicare. Voters won’t imagine it.” It will not be a scare tactic if the Republican policy goal is precisely that. The instance of reproductive rights can be relevant here. For years, Democrats tried to get voters to understand that reproductive rights were on the ballot, but it surely was not until the reversal of Roe v. Wade that the pro-choice majority spoke and voted, seriously damaging their opportunity for a red wave within the 2022 mid-terms. When cutting Social Security and Medicare moves from rhetoric to votes, seniors will take ballot motion.
At the identical time the fiscal hardliners were negotiating with Kevin McCarthy, a bi-partisan group of senators, including Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, and President Joe Biden were celebrating infrastructure investments on the border between Ohio and Kentucky. All across America, Republicans who didn’t vote for spending are showing up at “shovel” events celebrating infrastructure investment. Spending is likely to be irresponsible, but it surely is politically popular.
The demands secured by the 19 from McCarthy are that there shall be no vote on raising the debt limit without the opportunity to vote on spending cuts, which also presents a serious threat to the American economy. The U.S. Treasury estimates that the debt limit vote shall be needed in August. Reportedly, McCarthy has agreed to not conform to not raise the debt limit without serious spending cuts. Advancing cuts in entitlement programs and domestic spending, will greatly limit Democratic member votes, so once more on the debt limit vote, the 19 members will play an outsized role.
Finally, securing a Republican majority within the House gave the Republican party the chance to maneuver beyond Donald Trump because it’s leader. There have been loads of reasons to imagine that Trump’s influence was dwindling within the face of various losses. Crediting Trump with McCarthy’s victory, because the speaker did, puts Trump front row and center within the Republican party and back at the pinnacle of the Republican table. On that measure, credit each those 19 members and Speaker #55.
For political junkies, McCarthy’s 15 ballot road to the speakership provided some drama. But that drama leaves us with a dysfunctional house, a looming economic crisis, and a re-empowered Trump. Kevin McCarthy had a foul week, but America’s was worse.
