With Russia expected to soon perform large-scale drills of its nuclear forces as President Vladimir Putin threatens to make use of them, america and its allies can be challenged to make sure they’ll spot the difference between exercises and the true thing.
Russia typically holds major annual nuclear exercises around this time of 12 months, and U.S. and Western officials expect them perhaps in only days. They are going to likely include the test launch of ballistic missiles, U.S. officials say.
But with Putin having openly threatened to make use of nuclear weapons to defend Russia in its unraveling invasion of Ukraine, some Western officials are nervous Moscow could deliberately attempt to muddy the waters about its intentions.
“That is why you don’t need to have extraordinarily overheated rhetoric at the identical time you are going to do a nuclear exercise,” a Western official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Because then we do have a further challenge to actually ensure that the actions that we see, the things which are occurring, are literally an exercise and never something else.”
Still, the official expressed “high confidence” within the West’s ability to make this distinction.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg assured a news conference in Brussels that the alliance would monitor Russia’s annual nuclear drills very closely, because it has for many years.
On the White House, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Russia’s so-called “Grom” drills would involve large scale maneuvers of its strategic nuclear forces, including live missile launches. He described them as “routine.”
“While Russia probably believes this exercise will help it project power, particularly in light of recent events, we all know that Russian nuclear units train extensively right now of 12 months,” Kirby said, adding america would “monitor that accordingly.”
A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Russian drills were expected to be carried out concerning the same time as NATO’s own annual nuclear preparedness exercise, which is dubbed “Steadfast Noon” and can begin next week.
“We imagine that Russian nuclear rhetoric and its decision to proceed with this exercise while at war with Ukraine is irresponsible,” the official told Reuters.
“Brandishing nuclear weapons to coerce america and its allies is irresponsible.”
The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t immediately reply to an emailed request for comment.
Officials have to this point said Putin has not yet taken steps to suggest he’s preparing to launch a nuclear strike, but Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric has intensified following a successful counter-offensive by Ukraine’s military over the past month.
In recent weeks Putin has proclaimed the annexation of Ukrainian territories and threatened to defend Russian land with nuclear weapons. A senior NATO official said on Wednesday any use of nuclear weapons by Russia might trigger a “physical response” from the alliance.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday after a gathering of NATO’s nuclear planning group in Brussels that he had not seen any “indications and warnings” that may cause a change to the U.S. nuclear posture.
Russia last exercised its nuclear forces in February, shortly before its invasion of Ukraine, in a move officials on the time believed was meant to discourage the West from supporting Kyiv.
The Western official expected drills meant to check “the Kremlin’s ability to supply control over the forces and to issue direction, and of the forces themselves to reply to that direction.”
The official anticipated that Russia would publicize points of the drills, and use them to drive home Moscow’s threats.
“We must always expect that there can be nuclear rhetoric in the course of the exercise, in order that they’ll make the most, strategic communications advantage, of the exercise itself,” the Western official said.
NATO’s own annual nuclear exercise was planned before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials said, adding it has been held repeatedly at around the identical time of the 12 months for over a decade. The majority of the drills will happen greater than 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from Russia, the U.S. defense official said.
Fourteen NATO nations are expected to be involved within the alliance’s drills, which include fighter jets able to carrying nuclear warheads — but doesn’t involve live bombs, the U.S. officials said, adding U.S. military B-52 bombers will participate.
“While we are going to proceed routine activities to sustain our (nuclear) deterrent, there can be no special messaging around our exercises,” the U.S. defense official said.
“We expect nuclear saber rattling is reckless and irresponsible. Russia may decide to play that game – but we cannot.”
