2025 NBA Finals pick, best bets

It’s not the NBA Finals anyone envisioned, but two of the league’s smallest markets are competing for a hoop in 2025. 

Oklahoma City is an enormous -800 series favorite at bet365, with the Pacers sitting at +550. 

These are the second-longest odds now we have seen in an NBA Finals matchup since 2005, with the one greater favorites being the 2017-18 Warriors, who were -1075 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in his final 12 months before heading to Hollywood. 

In Game 1, the Pacers are big 9.5-point road underdogs with the moneyline coming in at +340. Indiana has been excellent on the road, going 6-2 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason. 

It is going to require a herculean effort to duplicate that against a Thunder team that’s 80-18 between the regular season and playoffs. 

We’ve talked in regards to the Pacers’ ability to dominate late in games, but some cracks within the armor reared their ugly heads on the back-end of that Knicks series. 

For starters, the bench appeared to offer the Pacers some problems once now ex-Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau opened up his lineups and gave some much-needed minutes to Landry Shamet and Delon Wright. 

Now, imagine Wright and Shamet being replaced with Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace and you may have a tricky time wearing down your opposition because the Pacers did the Knicks. 

The Thunder have too many pieces that they will call on if a few of their starters need a rest, so I think Oklahoma City wins this series somewhat easily, at worst in six games, but likely before that. 

After posting a robust net rating through two rounds of the playoffs and early on against the Knicks, the Pacers cratered to the top the series and have a 0.0 net rating in final quarters throughout the playoffs. 

Indiana is 12-4 within the fourth quarter throughout the playoffs, the identical record because the Thunder, but not all wins are created equal. 

Twelve minutes played against the Denver Nuggets shouldn’t be the identical as 12 minutes played against the Knicks or Heat. 

Betting on the NBA?

Look to Oklahoma City to win this series going away, because of suffocating defensive pressure and robust depth in any respect positions that ought to work against Indiana’s run-and-gun strategy. 

Live bet the Thunder if the young team gets first-half jitters and you possibly can get them at plus-money, and back their fourth quarter against the spread price of -1.5 (-108). 

THE PLAY: Thunder fourth quarter -1.5 (-108, FanDuel)

Why Trust Recent York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. Through the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post within the player prop market the last two seasons. While always betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.