While I’m sad that we’ve to attend one other 52 weeks for an additional Masters, I’m pleased to report that we had an incredible week of PGA Tour betting.
We had 4 picks on the cardboard last week and cashed three of them – Scottie Scheffler to win, Xander Schauffele to complete in the highest 10 and Tiger Woods to make the cut.
Once you add within the Stephan Jaeger outright at +5000 from just a few weeks ago, this has been an incredible begin to the season. Let’s try to maintain the momentum going on the RBC Heritage.
The course in play this week is Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, S.C. It’s a par-71 that measures a bit greater than 7,200 yards.
Like most Pete Dye courses, this will not be one which might be overpowered off the tee. With narrow fairways, doglegs, overhanging tree limbs and water hazards lurking in every single place, that is more of a positional course off the tee.
In other words, you don’t must be a bomber to play well there.
The greens at Harbour Town are extremely small (3,400 square feet) and difficult to hit on average. This places an emphasis on each approach play and scrambling.
The three essential statistics I’m taking a look at this week from players are strokes-gained approach, strokes gained across the green and bogey avoidance.
Course history has been fairly predictive over time, so I don’t mind leaning on golfers who’ve played well here up to now.
2024 RBC Heritage best bets
Cameron Young to win (+3000, FanDuel)
Young has yet to choose up a win on the PGA Tour, but he has been in contention so repeatedly.
In his short profession, he has seven runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes. It’s only a matter of time before he gets the breaks he needs on a Sunday.
And the actual fact he’s won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour shows he knows tips on how to win.
While it is a less-than-driver course for essentially the most part, nearly 40% of approach shots are hit from 150-200 yards. Young is among the best in the sector in the case of approach shots from that distance.
He’s been in solid form all yr and nearly won this event in 2022.
Wyndham Clark to win (+3500, DraftKings)
Clark missed the cut on the Masters last week, which has led to a really enticing price point within the outright betting market.
If he had made the cut and had a good weekend, his odds would likely be within the +2000 range. As an alternative, it’s nearly double that.
He seems to like these Signature Events, as he won at Pebble Beach and finished second at each The Players Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He doesn’t have a weakness in his game and he plays this event every yr.
If you wish to play the regional narrative, he won on a Carolina course last yr (Quail Hole).
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Shane Lowry top 10 (+330, FanDuel)
Lowry was close to creating my outright betting card this week, but his number cratered before I had the possibility to bet it. As an alternative, I’ll accept a top-10 finish.
His T33 result on the Masters doesn’t seem like much on paper, but he lost eight strokes putting. Had he been just even with the sector on the greens, he would have finished in the highest 10.
His irons and his mess around the green are excellent, and he clearly likes the course. In his last five appearances at Harbour Town, he has finished in the highest 10 3 times.
Russell Henley top 20 (+115, DraftKings)
I can’t consider a greater course for Henley’s game. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s elite on approach and he’s excellent across the greens.
On top of all that, he seems to have found something along with his putting this yr.
In a field of only 70 golfers, I really like his possibilities of ending in the highest 20. He’s been in a position to hit that mark in full-field events in eight of his last 13 starts and has hit that mark in two of his last three trips to Harbour Town.
